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Public and private sector wages: co-movement and causality

Author

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  • Lamo, Ana
  • Schuknecht, Ludger
  • Pérez, Javier J.

Abstract

This paper looks at public and private sector wages interactions since the 1960s in the euro area, euro area countries and a number of other OECD countries. The paper reports, first, a strong positive annual contemporaneous correlation of public and private sector wages over the business cycle; this finding is robust across methods and measures of wages and quite general across countries. Second, we show evidence of long-run relationships between public and private sector wages in all countries. Finally, causality analysis suggests that feedback effects between private and public wages occur in a direct manner and, importantly also via prices. While influences from the private sector appear on the whole to be stronger, there are direct and indirect feedback effects from public wage setting in a number of countries as well. We show how country-specific institutional features of labour and product markets contain helpful information to explain the heterogeneity across countries of our results on public/private wage leadership. JEL Classification: C32, J30, J51, J52, E62, E63, H50

Suggested Citation

  • Lamo, Ana & Schuknecht, Ludger & Pérez, Javier J., 2008. "Public and private sector wages: co-movement and causality," Working Paper Series 963, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008963
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp963.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2013. "Fiscal policy in a Real-Business-Cycle model with labor-intensive government services and endogenous public sector wages and hours," EconStor Preprints 142338, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    2. Jesús Otero & Luis Fernando Gamboa & Andrés García-Suaza, 2011. "An analysis of the relationship between wages in the public and private sector in colombia: a panel data approach," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 008738, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    3. Justina A.V. Fischer & Frank Somogyi, 2009. "Globalization and Protection of Employment," KOF Working papers 09-238, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. Pascal Jacquinot & Matija Lozej & Massimiliano Pisani, 2018. "Labor Tax Reforms, Cross-Country Coordination, and the Monetary Policy Stance in the Euro Area: A Structural Model-Based Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 65-140, June.
    5. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of public-sector unions," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 101-126.
    6. D'Adamo, Gaetano, 2011. "Wage spillovers across sectors in Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 27841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gaetano D’Adamo, 2014. "Wage spillovers across sectors in Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 523-552, September.
    8. Pérez, Javier J. & Giordano, Raffaela & Depalo, Domenico & Coutinho Pereira, Manuel & Eugène, Bruno & Papapetrou, Evangelia & Reiss, Lukas & Roter, Mojca, 2011. "The public sector pay gap in a selection of Euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1406, European Central Bank.
    9. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & Javier Pérez & José Torres, 2012. "Public and private sector wages interactions in a general equilibrium model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 309-326, January.
    10. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2013. "Cyclical and welfare effects of public sector unions in a Real-Business-Cycle model," EconStor Preprints 142337, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    11. Christiane Nickel & Andreas Tudyka, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1313-1344, October.
    12. Hristina Manolova & Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017. "Wage Dynamics in Bulgaria: Co-movement and Causality," Bulgarian Economic Papers (www.bep.bg) bep-2017-08, St Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration / Center for Economic Theories and Policies, revised Sep 2017.
    13. Francesca Pancotto & Filippo Pericoli, 2014. "Till labor cost do us part," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 371-395, September.
    14. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2013. "On the cost of rent-seeking by government bureaucrats in a Real-Business-Cycle framework," EconStor Preprints 142339, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    15. Francesca Pancotto & Filippo Pericoli, 2011. "Till Labor Cost Do Us Part A Vecm Model of Unit Labor Cost Convergence in the Euro Area," Working Papers 14, Doctoral School of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, revised 2011.
    16. Javier Pérez & A. Sánchez, 2011. "Is there a signalling role for public wages? Evidence for the euro area based on macro data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 421-445, October.
    17. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017. "On the Cost of Opportunistic Behavior in the Public Sector: A General-Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(2), pages 565-582, April.
    18. Eckardt, Sebastian & Mills, Zachary, 2014. "What goes up must come down -- cyclicality in public wage bill spending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6760, The World Bank.
    19. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2013. "Smaller Public Sectors in the Euro Area: Aggregate and Distributional Implications," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(3), pages 536-558, September.
    20. Kurokawa, Yoshinori & Pang, Jiaren & Tang, Yao, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and wage comovements in a Ricardian model with money," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 96-109.
    21. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2013. "Essays on Real Business Cycle Modeling and the Public Sector," EconStor Theses, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, number 130522.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    (partly) government wages; causality; co-movement; private sector wages;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
    • J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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