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Are There Election Cycles in Wage Agreements? An Analysis of German Public Employees

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  • Matschke, Xenia

Abstract

In this article, the possibility of Nordhaus political wage cycles in the West German public services during 1961-65 is investigated. Since wage negotiations are centralized, one might expect a systematically higher wage increase shortly before a federal election. A regression of wage increases from 30 consecutive public sector pay contracts is run on an election variable and several additional explanatory variables. The null of no election influence is rejected for worker wage increases. The estimated increase in wages due to an imminent election is predicted to be in the range of 2.5 to 3 percentage points. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Matschke, Xenia, 2003. "Are There Election Cycles in Wage Agreements? An Analysis of German Public Employees," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 114(1-2), pages 103-135, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:114:y:2003:i:1-2:p:103-35
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    Cited by:

    1. Fontaine, Idriss & Gálvez-Iniesta, Ismael & Gomes, Pedro & Vila-Martin, Diego, 2020. "Labour market flows: Accounting for the public sector," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Afonso, António & Gomes, Pedro, 2014. "Interactions between private and public sector wages," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 97-112.
    3. Lamo, Ana & Schuknecht, Ludger & Pérez, Javier J., 2008. "Public and private sector wages: co-movement and causality," Working Paper Series 963, European Central Bank.
    4. Alexandre SAUQUET & Antoine CAZALS, 2013. "When does cooperation win and why? Political cycles and participation in international environmental agreements," Working Papers 201320, CERDI.
    5. Gomes, Pedro Maia & Kuehn, Zoë, 2019. "You’re the One That I Want! Public Employment and Women’s Labor Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 12702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & Javier Pérez & José Torres, 2012. "Public and private sector wages interactions in a general equilibrium model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 309-326, January.
    7. Björn Kauder & Manuela Krause & Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Electoral cycles in MPs’ salaries: evidence from the German states," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 981-1000, August.
    8. Quiroz Flores, Alejandro & Pfaff, Katharina, 2021. "Private provision of public goods and political survival: Rail transport in four European democracies in the 20th century," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Manuela Krause, 2019. "Communal fees and election cycles: Evidence from German municipalities," ifo Working Paper Series 293, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Maria M. Campos & Domenico Depalo & Evangelia Papapetrou & Javier J. Pérez & Roberto Ramos, 2017. "Understanding the public sector pay gap," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.
    11. Pedro Gomes, 2018. "Heterogeneity And The Public Sector Wage Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1469-1489, August.
    12. Antoine Cazals & Alexandre Sauquet, 2015. "How do elections affect international cooperation? Evidence from environmental treaty participation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 263-285, March.
    13. Jaaidane, Touria & Larribeau, Sophie, 2023. "The effects of inter-municipal cooperation and central grant allocation on the size of the French local public sector," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Lamo, Ana & Pérez, Javier J. & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2013. "Are government wages interlinked with private sector wages?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 697-712.
    15. M. Ivanova., 2015. "The Interaction between Public and Private Sector Wages," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
    16. Forand, Jean Guillaume, 2019. "Civil service and the growth of government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Aaskoven, Lasse, 2018. "Polity age and political budget cycles: Evidence from a Danish municipal reform," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 75-84.
    18. Touria Jaaidane & Sophie Larribeau, 2021. "When Cooperation tames the Leviathan and Partisan-distorted Grant Allocation feeds it: Evidence from French Municipalities," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2021-04, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.

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