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Tracking Labor Market Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment

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Abstract

Many traditional official statistics are not suitable for measuring high-frequency developments that evolve over the course of weeks, not months. In this paper, we track the labor market effects of the COVID-19 pandemic with weekly payroll employment series based on microdata from ADP. These data are available essentially in real-time, and allow us to track both aggregate and industry effects. Cumulative losses in paid employment through April 4 are currently estimated at 18 million; just during the two weeks between March 14 and March 28 the U.S. economy lost about 13 million paid jobs. For comparison, during the entire Great Recession less than 9 million private payroll employment jobs were lost. In the current crisis, the most affected sector is leisure and hospitality, which has so far lost or furloughed about 30 percent of employment, or roughly 4 million jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher J. Kurz, 2020. "Tracking Labor Market Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-30
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.030
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    1. John Grigsby & Erik Hurst & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2021. "Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 428-471, February.
    2. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7rx7t91p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher Kurz, 2019. "Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics, pages 147-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher J. Kurz, 2019. "Tracking the Labor Market with "Big Data"," FEDS Notes 2019-09-20-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Erik Brynjolfsson & John J. Horton & Adam Ozimek & Daniel Rock & Garima Sharma & Hong-Yi TuYe, 2020. "COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data," NBER Working Papers 27344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Christopher J. Kurz & Tyler Radler, 2018. "Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Carmen Valentina Radulescu & Georgiana-Raluca Ladaru & Sorin Burlacu & Florentina Constantin & Corina Ioanăș & Ionut Laurentiu Petre, 2020. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Romanian Labor Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Wei Cheng & Patrick Carlin & Joanna Carroll & Sumedha Gupta & Felipe Lozano Rojas & Laura Montenovo & Thuy D. Nguyen & Ian M. Schmutte & Olga Scrivner & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing & Bruce Weinberg, 2020. "Back to Business and (Re)employing Workers? Labor Market Activity During State COVID-19 Reopenings," NBER Working Papers 27419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Valletta, Robert G., 2020. "Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 13294, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Sumedha Gupta & Laura Montenovo & Thuy Nguyen & Felipe Lozano‐Rojas & Ian Schmutte & Kosali Simon & Bruce A. Weinberg & Coady Wing, 2023. "Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 166-193, January.
    6. Betcherman, Gordon & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Laliotis, Ioannis & Pantelaiou, Ioanna & Testaverde, Mauro & Tzimas, Giannis, 2020. "Reacting quickly and protecting jobs: The short-term impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on the Greek labor market," GLO Discussion Paper Series 613, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Dimitris Karagiannis & Meletios Andrinos, 2021. "The Role of Sustainable Restaurant Practices in City Branding: The Case of Athens," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    8. Jeong, Deokjae, 2022. "How the reduction of Temporary Foreign Workers led to a rise in vacancy rates in the South Korea," MPRA Paper 118731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hwai-Shuh Shieh & Shu-Chen Lin, 2023. "The Influence of a Celebrity Chef on Customer Repurchase Behavior: Empirical Study of Taiwan’s F&B Industry During COVID-19 Pandemic," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.
    10. Chun Song & Lionel J. Beaulieu & Indraneel Kumar & Roberto Gallardo, 2023. "COVID-19-Induced Automation: An Exploratory Study of Critical Occupations," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 37(2), pages 183-197, May.
    11. Cahuc, Pierre, 2024. "The Micro and Macro Economics of Short-Time Work," IZA Discussion Papers 17111, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Thuy D. Nguyen & Sumedha Gupta & Martin Andersen & Ana Bento & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Impacts of State Reopening Policy on Human Mobility," NBER Working Papers 27235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Laura Alfaro & Oscar Becerra & Marcela Eslava, 2020. "EMEs and COVID-19 Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra y Marcela Eslava," Documentos CEDE 18193, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    14. Gordon Betcherman & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Ioannis Laliotis & Ioanna Pantelaiou & Mauro Testaverde & Giannis Tzimas, 2023. "The short-term impact of the 2020 pandemic lockdown on employment in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1273-1307, September.
    15. Laura Alfaro & Oscar Becerra & Marcela Eslava, 2020. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms," NBER Working Papers 27360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Brave, Scott A. & Butters, R. Andrew & Fogarty, Michael, 2022. "The perils of working with big data, and a SMALL checklist you can use to recognize them," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 481-492.
    17. Luigi Aldieri & Bruna Bruno & Concetto Paolo Vinci, 2022. "Employment Support and COVID-19: Is Working Time Reduction the Right Tool?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-14, June.
    18. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Sevil Sonmez & Yorghos Apostolopoulos, 2020. "The Hospitality Industry in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Current Topics and Research Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-20, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor market; Economic measurement; Big data; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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