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Fitting Broadband Diffusion by Cable Modem in Portugal

Author

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  • Rui Pascoal

    (Faculty of Economics University of Coimbra)

  • Jorge Marques

    (Faculty of Economics University of Coimbra)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to described the evolution of the number of residential subscribers of broadband fixed access by cable modem, in Portugal, on the period from 2000–2009. The pattern of evolution is estimated by fitting several models to the series, namely the following: exponential, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass and Michaelis-Menten. We fit the models to the data by nonlinear least squares, except in the exponential model where the linear version is fitted by ordinary least squares, using the internet freely available program R. This comparative study is in line with many others on the diffusion of technological innovations in the telecommunications sector, where the point is finding out if there is an early or a late take-off phenomenon. The Michaelis-Menten model is introduced for the first time in this approach. It allows to predict the later evolution in the series and reveals a qualitatively different behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Pascoal & Jorge Marques, 2011. "Fitting Broadband Diffusion by Cable Modem in Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2011-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2011-20
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    File URL: http://gemf.fe.uc.pt/workingpapers/pdf/2011/gemf_2011-20.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nunes, Flávio, 0. "Geographical gaps in the Portuguese broadband access. Rethinking the role of public funding after years of trade liberalisation," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(8-9), pages 496-515, September.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    3. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, L.C.Lígia Costa, 0. "The diffusion of cellular phones in Portugal," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 427-437, June.
    4. V. Srinivasan & Charlotte H. Mason, 1986. "Technical Note—Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 169-178.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Broadband; Technological Innovations; Diffusion Growth Models; Nonlinear Least Squares;

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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