IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Competition effect of a new mobile technology on an incumbent technology: An Indian case study


  • Gupta, Ruchita
  • Jain, Karuna


Changes in mobile technology have radically altered people’s lives by improving their ability to communicate. New mobile technologies in the market offer enhanced voice capability, high-speed data service, and expanded service coverage. In India, the spread of second-generation mobile technologies—global system for mobile (GSM) and code division multiple access (CDMA)—has led to a dramatic rise in teledensity, from approximately 1% in 1985 to 76.86% in 2011. This presents an interesting opportunity to study the competitive effects of the two technologies. In this paper, we analyze the effect of a new technology (CDMA) on an existing technology’s (GSM) diffusion process and vice versa using an epidemic diffusion model that incorporates the competition effect. The results showed that the diffusion of CDMA was faster than that of GSM in India and CDMA diffusion had a positive effect on GSM. Further, despite competition, GSM continues to remain the dominant mobile technology in India. These findings offer useful insights into the diffusion process of mobile telephony in countries with multiple technology standards. They can potentially guide the design of diffusion strategies for future generations of mobile technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Gupta, Ruchita & Jain, Karuna, 2016. "Competition effect of a new mobile technology on an incumbent technology: An Indian case study," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 332-342.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:40:y:2016:i:4:p:332-342
    DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2016.01.001

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
    2. Pierre Vialle & Junjie Song & Jian Zhang, 2012. "Competing with dominant global standards in a catching-up context. The case of mobile standards in China," Post-Print hal-01289708, HAL.
    3. Kano, Sadahiko, 2000. "Technical innovations, standardization and regional comparison -- a case study in mobile communications," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 305-321, May.
    4. Roshan L. Chaddha & Sharad S. Chitgopekar, 1971. "A "Generalization" of the Logistic Curves and Long-Range Forecasts (1966-1991) of Residence Telephones," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(2), pages 542-560, Autumn.
    5. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    6. Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 2001. "The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 577-588, March.
    7. Jho, Whasun, 2007. "Global political economy of technology standardization: A case of the Korean mobile telecommunications market," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 124-138, March.
    8. Rouvinen, Petri, 2006. "Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 46-63, February.
    9. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    10. Mohammad Tsani Annafari & Sven Lindmark & Erik Bohlin, 2012. "Intergenerational effects of mobile telecommunications service diffusion in Sweden," International Journal of Management and Network Economics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 357-373.
    11. Maurer, Sebastian M. & Huberman, Bernardo A., 2003. "Competitive dynamics of web sites," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2195-2206, September.
    12. Gruber,Harald, 2005. "The Economics of Mobile Telecommunications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843270, April.
    13. Hwang, Junseok & Cho, Youngsang & Long, Nguyen Viet, 2009. "Investigation of factors affecting the diffusion of mobile telephone services: An empirical analysis for Vietnam," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 534-543, October.
    14. V. Srinivasan & Charlotte H. Mason, 1986. "Technical Note—Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 169-178.
    15. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
    16. Jeffrey Funk, 2009. "The co-evolution of technology and methods of standard setting: the case of the mobile phone industry," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 73-93, February.
    17. Vialle, Pierre & Song, Junjie & Zhang, Jian, 2012. "Competing with dominant global standards in a catching-up context. The case of mobile standards in China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 832-846.
    18. Jang, Show-Ling & Dai, Shau-Chi & Sung, Simona, 2005. "The pattern and externality effect of diffusion of mobile telecommunications: the case of the OECD and Taiwan," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 133-148, March.
    19. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2004. "Entry, Standards and Competition: Firm Strategies and the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 26(1), pages 89-113, November.
    20. Casey, Thomas R. & Töyli, Juuso, 2012. "Mobile voice diffusion and service competition: A system dynamic analysis of regulatory policy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 162-174.
    21. Maurer, Sebastian M. & Huberman, Bernardo A., 2003. "Competitive dynamics of web sites," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2195-2206.
    22. Namwoon Kim & Dae Ryun Chang & Allan D. Shocker, 2000. "Modeling Intercategory and Generational Dynamics for A Growing Information Technology Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(4), pages 496-512, April.
    23. Gupta, Ruchita & Jain, Karuna, 2012. "Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(4), pages 709-715.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Avila, Luz Angelica Pirir & Lee, Deok-Joo & Kim, Taegu, 2018. "Diffusion and competitive relationship of mobile telephone service in Guatemala: An empirical analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 116-126.
    2. Barman, Hemanta & Dutta, Mrinal Kanti & Nath, Hiranya K., 2018. "The telecommunications divide among Indian states," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 530-551.
    3. Ashutosh Jha & Debashis Saha, 2019. "Examining categorization of Telecom Circles in India using unsupervised k-means clustering on techno-economic indicators," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 46(4), pages 365-383, December.

    More about this item


    Mobile technology; Diffusion; Competition; GSM; CDMA; India;


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:40:y:2016:i:4:p:332-342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.