IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v18y2002i4p489-522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Telecommunications demand forecasting--a review

Author

Listed:
  • Fildes, Robert
  • Kumar, V.

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Fildes, Robert & Kumar, V., 2002. "Telecommunications demand forecasting--a review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 489-522.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:18:y:2002:i:4:p:489-522
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(02)00064-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kridel, Donald J & Taylor, Lester D, 1993. "The Demand for Commodity Packages: The Case of Telephone Custom Calling Features," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 362-368, May.
    2. Weerahandi, Samaradasa & Hisiger, Robert S. & Chien, Victor, 1994. "A framework for forecasting demand for new services and their cross effects on existing services," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 143-162, July.
    3. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
    4. Kridel, Donald J., 1988. "A consumer surplus approach to predicting extended area service (EAS) development and stimulation rates," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-390.
    5. Fildes, Robert & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros & Meade, Nigel, 1998. "Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-358, September.
    6. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1988. "A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-192.
    7. Roshan L. Chaddha & Sharad S. Chitgopekar, 1971. "A "Generalization" of the Logistic Curves and Long-Range Forecasts (1966-1991) of Residence Telephones," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(2), pages 542-560, Autumn.
    8. Parker, Philip M., 1994. "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 353-380, September.
    9. Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
    10. Armstrong, J. Scott & Morwitz, Vicki G. & Kumar, V., 2000. "Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-397.
    11. Gruber, Harald, 2001. "Competition and innovation: The diffusion of mobile telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 19-34, March.
    12. Nigel Meade & Towhidul Islam, 1998. "Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1115-1130, August.
    13. Cracknell, David & Knott, Michael, 1995. "The measurement of price elasticities--the BT experience," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 321-329, June.
    14. Hermann Simon & Karl-Heinz Sebastian, 1987. "Diffusion and Advertising: The German Telephone Campaign," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 451-466, April.
    15. Hackl, Peter & Westlund, Anders H., 1996. "Demand for international telecommunication time-varying price elasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 243-260, January.
    16. Karikari, John A. & Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 1999. "Demand for international telephone services between US and Africa," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 407-435, December.
    17. Gary Madden & Michael Simpson, 1997. "Residential broadband subscription demand: an econometric analysis of Australian choice experiment data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1073-1078.
    18. Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 2001. "The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 577-588, March.
    19. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
    20. Easingwood, Christopher J., 1989. "An analogical approach to the long term forecasting of major new product sales," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 69-82.
    21. Greis, Noel P. & Gilstein, C. Zachary, 1991. "Empirical Bayes methods for telecommunications forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 183-197, August.
    22. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
    23. Rabik Ar Chatterjee & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1990. "The Innovation Diffusion Process in a Heterogeneous Population: A Micromodeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(9), pages 1057-1079, September.
    24. Kridel, Donald J. & Lehman, Dale E. & Weisman, Dennis L., 1993. "Option value, telecommunications demand, and policy," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 125-144, July.
    25. Grambsch, Patricia & Stahel, Werner A., 1990. "Forecasting demand for special telephone services: A case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 53-64.
    26. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Meade, Nigel, 2002. "Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-624.
    27. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G, 2001. "Modelling the Development of Supply-Restricted Telecommunications Markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 249-264, July.
    28. Cox Jr., Louis A. & Popken, Douglas A., 2002. "A hybrid system-identification method for forecasting telecommunications product demands," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 647-671.
    29. Asher Tishler & Ron Ventura & John Watters, 2001. "Cellular telephones in the Israeli market: the demand, the choice of provider and potential revenues," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(11), pages 1479-1492.
    30. Layton, Allan P. & Defris, Lorraine V. & Zehnwirth, Ben, 1986. "An international comparison of economic leading indicators of telecommunications traffic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 413-425.
    31. Ahn, Hyungtaik & Lee, Myeong-Ho, 1999. "An econometric analysis of the demand for access to mobile telephone networks," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 297-305, September.
    32. Dipak Jain & Vijay Mahajan & Eitan Muller, 1991. "Innovation Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Restrictions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 83-90.
    33. Kridel, Donald J. & Rappoport, Paul N. & Taylor, Lester D., 2002. "IntraLATA long-distance demand: carrier choice, usage demand and price elasticities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 545-559.
    34. Jun, Duk B. & Kim, Seon K. & Park, Yoon S. & Park, Myoung H. & Wilson, Amy R., 2002. "Forecasting telecommunication service subscribers in substitutive and competitive environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-581.
    35. Grandstaff, Peter J. & Ferris, Mark E. & Chou, Shuh S., 1988. "Forecasting competitive behavior : An assessment of AT&T's incentive to extend its U.S. network," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 521-533.
    36. Das, Pinaki & Srinivasan, P. V., 1999. "Demand for telephone usage in India," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 177-194, July.
    37. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
    38. Mahler, Alwin & Rogers, Everett M., 1999. "The diffusion of interactive communication innovations and the critical mass: the adoption of telecommunications services by German banks," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(10-11), pages 719-740, November.
    39. Eisner, James & Waldon, Tracy, 2001. "The demand for bandwidth: second telephone lines and on-line services," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 301-309, September.
    40. Madden, Gary & Simpson, Michael, 1996. "A probit model of household broadband service subscription intentions: A regional analysis," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 249-267, September.
    41. Venkatesan, Rajkumar & Kumar, V., 2002. "A genetic algorithms approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-646.
    42. Hackl, Peter & Westlund, Anders H., 1995. "On price elasticities of international telecommunication demand," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 27-36, April.
    43. Heitfield, Erik & Levy, Armando, 2001. "Parametric, semi-parametric and non-parametric models of telecommunications demand: An investigation of residential calling patterns," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 311-329, September.
    44. Madden, Gary & Savage, Scott J. & Coble-Neal, Grant, 2002. "Forecasting United States-Asia international message telephone service," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 523-543.
    45. Garin-Munoz, Teresa & Perez-Amaral, Teodosio, 1998. "Econometric modelling of Spanish very long distance international calling," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 237-252, June.
    46. Duffy-Deno, Kevin T., 2001. "Demand for additional telephone lines: an empirical note," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 283-299, September.
    47. Christoph H. Loch & Bernardo A. Huberman, 1999. "A Punctuated-Equilibrium Model of Technology Diffusion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 160-177, February.
    48. Antonelli, Cristiano, 1993. "Externalities and complementarities in telecommunications dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 437-447, September.
    49. Weisman, Dennis L. & Kridel, Donald J., 1990. "Forecasting competitive entry: The case of bypass adoption in telecommunications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74.
    50. Glen L. Urban & John R. Hauser & John H. Roberts, 1990. "Prelaunch Forecasting of New Automobiles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(4), pages 401-421, April.
    51. Mahajan, Vijay & Wind, Yoram, 1988. "New product forecasting models : Directions for research and implementation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 341-358.
    52. Ahn, Hyungtaik, 2001. "A nonparametric method of estimating the demand for mobile telephone networks: An application to the Korean mobile telephone market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 95-106, March.
    53. Rui Baptista, 1999. "The Diffusion of Process Innovations: A Selective Review," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 107-129.
    54. Kumar, V. & Nagpal, Anish & Venkatesan, Rajkumar, 2002. "Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 583-603.
    55. S. Weerahandi & S. R. Dalal, 1992. "A Choice-Based Approach to the Diffusion of a Service: Forecasting Fax Penetration by Market Segments," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 39-53.
    56. Kunisawa, Kiyonori & Horibe, Yasuichi, 1986. "Forecasting international telecommunications traffic by the data translation method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 427-434.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Otero, Jesús, 0. "An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10-11), pages 611-620, November.
    2. Robertson, Alastair & Soopramanien, Didier & Fildes, Robert, 2007. "A segment-based analysis of Internet service adoption among UK households," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 339-350.
    3. Michalakelis, C. & Sphicopoulos, T., 2012. "A population dependent diffusion model with a stochastic extension," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 587-606.
    4. James W. Taylor, 2008. "A Comparison of Univariate Time Series Methods for Forecasting Intraday Arrivals at a Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 253-265, February.
    5. Barrow, Devon K., 2016. "Forecasting intraday call arrivals using the seasonal moving average method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 6088-6096.
    6. R Fildes & K Nikolopoulos & S F Crone & A A Syntetos, 2008. "Forecasting and operational research: a review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(9), pages 1150-1172, September.
    7. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria," Working Papers 20110301, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
    8. Lee, Jong-Ho & Garrett, Tony C. & Self, Donald R. & Findley Musgrove, Carolyn S. (Casey), 2012. "Expressive versus instrumental functions on technology attractiveness in the UK and Korea," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 65(11), pages 1600-1605.
    9. Cox Jr., Louis A. & Popken, Douglas A., 2002. "A hybrid system-identification method for forecasting telecommunications product demands," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 647-671.
    10. Zaber, Moinul & Sirbu, Marvin, 2012. "Impact of spectrum management policy on the penetration of 3G technology," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 762-782.
    11. Dragan Lazarević & Libor Švadlenka & Valentina Radojičić & Momčilo Dobrodolac, 2020. "New Express Delivery Service and Its Impact on CO 2 Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(2), pages 1-29, January.
    12. Rajae Azrak & Guy Melard & Hassane Njimi, 2004. "Forecasting in the analysis of mobile telecommunication data: correction for outliers and replacement of missing observations," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13748, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. D’Ignazio, Alessio & Giovannetti, Emanuele, 2015. "Predicting internet commercial connectivity wars: The impact of trust and operators’ asymmetry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1127-1137.
    14. Takanori Ida & Shin Kinoshita & Masayuki Sato, 2008. "Conjoint analysis of demand for IP telephony: the case of Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(10), pages 1279-1287.
    15. Rajae Azrak & Guy Melard & Hassane Njimi, 2003. "Forecasting in the analysis of mobile telecommunication data: correction for outliers and replacement of missing observations," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13836, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
    17. Shin, Hyungsup & Jung, Jiyeon & Koo, Yoonmo, 2020. "Forecasting the video data traffic of 5 G services in south korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    18. Christos Michalakelis & Georgia Dede & Dimitris Varoutas & Thomas Sphicopoulos, 2010. "Estimating diffusion and price elasticity with application to telecommunications," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 221-242, October.
    19. Federico Cosenz & Guido Noto, 2016. "Applying System Dynamics Modelling to Strategic Management: A Literature Review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(6), pages 703-741, November.
    20. Venkatesan, Rajkumar & Kumar, V., 2002. "A genetic algorithms approach to growth phase forecasting of wireless subscribers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 625-646.
    21. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    22. S Howick & J Whalley, 2008. "Understanding the drivers of broadband adoption: the case of rural and remote Scotland," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(10), pages 1299-1311, October.
    23. Fildes, Robert, 2003. "New-Product Diffusion Models: V. Mahajan, E. Muller and Y. Wind (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Press, Boston & Dordrecht, 2000, ISBN 0-7923-7751-6. 115.50 EUR/99.95 USD/70.00 GBP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 327-328.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    2. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    3. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Madden, Gary & Coble-Neal, Grant & Dalzell, Brian, 2004. "A dynamic model of mobile telephony subscription incorporating a network effect," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 133-144, March.
    5. Elmar Kiesling & Markus Günther & Christian Stummer & Lea Wakolbinger, 2012. "Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 20(2), pages 183-230, June.
    6. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    7. Al-Alawi, Baha M. & Bradley, Thomas H., 2013. "Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-203.
    8. Madden, Gary & Savage, Scott J. & Coble-Neal, Grant, 2002. "Forecasting United States-Asia international message telephone service," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 523-543.
    9. Jha, Ashutosh & Saha, Debashis, 2020. "“Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
    11. Michalakelis, C. & Sphicopoulos, T., 2012. "A population dependent diffusion model with a stochastic extension," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 587-606.
    12. Orbach Yair & Fruchter Gila E., 2010. "A Utility-Based Diffusion Model Applied to the Digital Camera Case," Review of Marketing Science, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, June.
    13. Dalla Valle, Alessandra & Furlan, Claudia, 2014. "Diffusion of nuclear energy in some developing countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 143-153.
    14. Islam, Towhidul & Meade, Nigel, 2015. "Firm level innovation diffusion of 3G mobile connections in international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1138-1152.
    15. de Bondt, Gabe & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2004. "The high-yield segment of the corporate bond market: a diffusion modelling approach for the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Working Paper Series 313, European Central Bank.
    16. Baburin, Vyacheslav & Zemtsov, Stepan, 2014. "Diffussion of ICT-products and "five Russias"," MPRA Paper 68926, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2014.
    17. Mayo, John W. & Ukhaneva, Olga, 2017. "International telecommunications demand," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 26-35.
    18. Gupta, Ruchita & Jain, Karuna, 2016. "Competition effect of a new mobile technology on an incumbent technology: An Indian case study," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 332-342.
    19. Wu, Feng-Shang & Chu, Wen-Lin, 2010. "Diffusion models of mobile telephony," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 497-501, May.
    20. Scaglione, Miriam & Giovannetti, Emanuele & Hamoudia, Mohsen, 2015. "The diffusion of mobile social networking: Exploring adoption externalities in four G7 countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1159-1170.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:18:y:2002:i:4:p:489-522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.