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Diffusion models of mobile telephony


  • Wu, Feng-Shang
  • Chu, Wen-Lin


Growth models are applicable to mobile telephony diffusion. Although cross-sectional performance comparisons of models are numerous, varying stages of the S-shaped diffusion curve have not been analyzed by longitudinal studies. This study determines whether the best model applies to an entire diffusion life span. Mobile telephone subscriber data for Taiwan during 1988-2007 are analyzed to compare the performance of three popular diffusion models and one well-known forecasting model--the Gompertz, Logistic, Bass, and time-series autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the Gompertz model outperforms the other models before diffusion take-off, and the Logistic model is superior after inflection and over the aggregate range of the diffusion. Network externalities are the dynamics of the Logistic model and account for its excellence. This longitudinal study is the first to present empirical evidence indicating that the appropriate diffusion model for mobile telephony is stage-dependent, complementing the case dependency of the appropriate diffusion model demonstrated by cross-sectional studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Feng-Shang & Chu, Wen-Lin, 2010. "Diffusion models of mobile telephony," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 497-501, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:63:y:2010:i:5:p:497-501

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qian, Lixian & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 1226-1232.
    2. Baburin, Vyacheslav & Zemtsov, Stepan, 2014. "Diffussion of ICT-products and "five Russias"," MPRA Paper 68926, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2014.
    3. Annafari, Mohammad Tsani, 2013. "Multiple subscriptions of mobile telephony: Explaining the diffusion pattern using sampling data," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 930-939.
    4. Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2015. "Forecasting ICT development through quantile confidence intervals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2295-2298.
    5. repec:eee:appene:v:197:y:2017:i:c:p:29-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yamakawa, Peter & Rees, Gareth H. & Manuel Salas, José & Alva, Nikolai, 2013. "The diffusion of mobile telephones: An empirical analysis for Peru," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 594-606.
    7. Lin, Chiun-Sin, 2013. "Forecasting and analyzing the competitive diffusion of mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband in Taiwan with limited historical data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 207-213.
    8. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2011. "Heterogeneous effects of different factors on global ICT adoption," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 1169-1173.
    9. Thakur, Ramendra & Hsu, Sonya H.Y. & Fontenot, Gwen, 2012. "Innovation in healthcare: Issues and future trends," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 562-569.
    10. Zhang, Xiaoqun, 2013. "Income disparity and digital divide: The Internet Consumption Model and cross-country empirical research," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 515-529.
    11. repec:wsi:apjorx:v:34:y:2017:i:01:n:s0217595917400061 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Whalley, Jason & Curwen, Peter, 2012. "Incumbency and market share within European mobile telecommunication networks," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 222-236.
    13. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Che, Yu-Jie & Chen, Zhen-Yu, 2017. "Product sales forecasting using online reviews and historical sales data: A method combining the Bass model and sentiment analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 90-100.
    14. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    15. Huarng, Kun-Huang, 2011. "A comparative study to classify ICT developments by economies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 1174-1177.
    16. Sang-Gun Lee & Eui-bang Lee & Chang-Gyu Yang, 2014. "Strategies for ICT product diffusion: the case of the Korean mobile communications market," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 8(1), pages 65-81, March.
    17. Winkler, Kay, 2014. "Potential Effects of New Zealand's Policy on Next Generation High-Speed Access Networks," Working Paper Series 4347, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.


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