Diffusion models of mobile telephony
Growth models are applicable to mobile telephony diffusion. Although cross-sectional performance comparisons of models are numerous, varying stages of the S-shaped diffusion curve have not been analyzed by longitudinal studies. This study determines whether the best model applies to an entire diffusion life span. Mobile telephone subscriber data for Taiwan during 1988-2007 are analyzed to compare the performance of three popular diffusion models and one well-known forecasting model--the Gompertz, Logistic, Bass, and time-series autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the Gompertz model outperforms the other models before diffusion take-off, and the Logistic model is superior after inflection and over the aggregate range of the diffusion. Network externalities are the dynamics of the Logistic model and account for its excellence. This longitudinal study is the first to present empirical evidence indicating that the appropriate diffusion model for mobile telephony is stage-dependent, complementing the case dependency of the appropriate diffusion model demonstrated by cross-sectional studies.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geroski, P. A., 2000.
"Models of technology diffusion,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
- Gruber, H. & Verboven, F.L., 1998.
"The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Union,"
1998-138, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 2001. "The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 577-588, March.
- Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 1999. "The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 822-41, August.
- Minkyu Lee & Youngsang Cho, 2007. "The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 477-481.
- Rouvinen, Petri, 2006.
"Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 46-63, February.
- Rouvinen, Petri, 2004. "Diffusion of Digital Mobile Telephony: Are Developing Countries Different?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Rouvinen, Petri, 2004. "Diffusion of Digital Mobile Telephony - Are Devoloping Countries Different?," Discussion Papers 901, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Nigel Meade & Towhidul Islam, 1998. "Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1115-1130, August.
- Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521805001 is not listed on IDEAS
- Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-40, June.
- Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
- Liikanen, Jukka & Stoneman, Paul & Toivanen, Otto, 2004. "Intergenerational effects in the diffusion of new technology: the case of mobile phones," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1137-1154, November.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521800952 is not listed on IDEAS
- Young, Peg & Ord, J. Keith, 1989. "Model selection and estimation for technological growth curves," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 501-513.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:63:y:2010:i:5:p:497-501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.