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A population dependent diffusion model with a stochastic extension

Author

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  • Michalakelis, C.
  • Sphicopoulos, T.

Abstract

Diffusion modeling is rather broad in nature, and is important in the areas of estimation and forecasting. Conventional models do not incorporate parameters that explicitly take into account the size of the population, or, equivalently, the size of the potential market. As a consequence, the models often fail to provide accurate forecasts, especially when the diffusion process is in the take-off stage. Furthermore, since diffusion is not a strictly deterministic process, forecasts should provide a measure of the underlying uncertainty of the process by incorporating a stochastic process into the formulation of the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Michalakelis, C. & Sphicopoulos, T., 2012. "A population dependent diffusion model with a stochastic extension," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 587-606.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:3:p:587-606
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
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    10. Albert C. Bemmaor & Janghyuk Lee, 2002. "The Impact of Heterogeneity and Ill-Conditioning on Diffusion Model Parameter Estimates," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 209-220, November.
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    1. repec:eee:phsmap:v:490:y:2018:i:c:p:353-365 is not listed on IDEAS

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