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An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

  • Gamboa, Luis Fernando
  • Otero, Jesús

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Telecommunications Policy.

Volume (Year): 33 ()
Issue (Month): 10-11 (November)
Pages: 611-620

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Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:33:y::i:10-11:p:611-620
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  1. Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 1999. "The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 2054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Michal Grajek & Tobias Kretschmer, 2006. "Usage and Diffusion of Cellular Telephony, 1998-2004," Working Papers 06-21, NET Institute, revised Oct 2006.
  3. Luis Hernando Gutierrez & Luis Fernando Gamboa, 2008. "An approximation to the digital divide among low income people in Colombia, Mexico and Perú: two composite indexes," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004710, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  4. Luis Fernando Gamboa & Luis Hernando Gutiérrez, 2008. "Use of informal mobile telephony in low income households in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004749, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
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