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An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

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  • Gamboa, Luis Fernando
  • Otero, Jesús

Abstract

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.

Suggested Citation

  • Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Otero, Jesús, 0. "An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10-11), pages 611-620, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:33:y::i:10-11:p:611-620
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    Cited by:

    1. Annafari, Mohammad Tsani, 2013. "Multiple subscriptions of mobile telephony: Explaining the diffusion pattern using sampling data," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 930-939.
    2. Hiroshi Kitamura & Akira Miyaoka & Misato Sato, 2011. "Free Entry, Market Diffusion, and Social Inefficiency with Endogenously Growing Demand," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 11-04-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Nov 2012.
    3. Tara Mitchell, 2016. "Factors Influencing the Diffusion of Information and Communications Technology: Are Developing Countries Different?," Trinity Economics Papers tep1216, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Kitamura, Hiroshi & Miyaoka, Akira & Sato, Misato, 2013. "Free entry, market diffusion, and social inefficiency with endogenously growing demand," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 98-116.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology diffusion Mobile telecommunications Gompertz curve Logistic curve Colombia;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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