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An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia

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  • Gamboa, Luis Fernando
  • Otero, Jesús

Abstract

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of mobile telephony in Colombia. The empirical modelling approach adopted in the paper starts off by choosing between the two functional forms that are most frequently used in the literature, namely the Gompertz and the Logistic models. After applying a formal statistical test to choose the preferred functional form, the evidence suggests that the pattern of diffusion can be best characterised as following a Logistic model. The findings also suggest that despite the fact that in recent years the rate of growth of mobile phone subscribers has started to slow down, there still appears to be room for further expansion as the saturation level is expected to be reached in 2013. The estimated saturation level is consistent with some individuals possessing more than one mobile device.

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  • Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Otero, Jesús, 0. "An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: The case of Colombia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10-11), pages 611-620, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:33:y::i:10-11:p:611-620
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    1. Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Gutiérrez, Luis H., 2010. "Public resale of mobile telephone minutes: An alternative access for low-income households in Colombia," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 122-129.
    2. Annafari, Mohammad Tsani, 2013. "Multiple subscriptions of mobile telephony: Explaining the diffusion pattern using sampling data," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 930-939.
    3. Riikonen, Antti & Smura, Timo & Kivi, Antero & Töyli, Juuso, 2013. "Diffusion of mobile handset features: Analysis of turning points and stages," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 563-572.
    4. Gupta, Ruchita & Jain, Karuna, 2016. "Competition effect of a new mobile technology on an incumbent technology: An Indian case study," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 332-342.
    5. Thakur Dhakal & Dae-Eun Lim, 2020. "Understanding ICT adoption in SAARC member countries," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 67-80, April.
    6. Gómez-Torres, Lina-María & Beltrán, Fernando, 2011. "Analysis of an integrated plan for expanding broadband access in Colombia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 871-882.
    7. Hiroshi Kitamura & Akira Miyaoka & Misato Sato, 2011. "Free Entry, Market Diffusion, and Social Inefficiency with Endogenously Growing Demand," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 11-04-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Nov 2012.
    8. Jha, Ashutosh & Saha, Debashis, 2020. "“Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models”," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Tara Mitchell, 2016. "Factors Influencing the Diffusion of Information and Communications Technology: Are Developing Countries Different?," Trinity Economics Papers tep1216, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    10. Honoré, Bidiasse, 2019. "Diffusion of mobile telephony: Analysis of determinants in Cameroon," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 287-298.
    11. Curwen, Peter & Whalley, Jason, 2013. "Mapping worldwide mobile networks: Some problems and indicative solutions," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 1150-1165.
    12. Avila, Luz Angelica Pirir & Lee, Deok-Joo & Kim, Taegu, 2018. "Diffusion and competitive relationship of mobile telephone service in Guatemala: An empirical analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 116-126.
    13. Kitamura, Hiroshi & Miyaoka, Akira & Sato, Misato, 2013. "Free entry, market diffusion, and social inefficiency with endogenously growing demand," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 98-116.
    14. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
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    16. Jitendra Parajuli & Kingsley E. Haynes, 2018. "Cellular mobile telephony in Nepal," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 209-222, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology diffusion Mobile telecommunications Gompertz curve Logistic curve Colombia;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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