Modeling Intercategory and Generational Dynamics for A Growing Information Technology Industry
Previous studies dealing with product growth have dealt only with substitution effects among successive generations of one product category and not with complementarity and competition provided by related product categories. Based on a broadened concept of the competitive information technology (IT) market, we develop a dynamic market growth model that is able to incorporate both interproduct category and technological substitution effects simultaneously. The market potential for each category or generation is treated as a variable rather than a constant parameter, which is typical of recently growing IT sectors such as wireless telecommunications. The model is calibrated, its plausibility discussed, and its face and predictive validity assessed using data on wireless telecommunications services from two Asian markets. Results show that the market potential (and sales growth) of one category or generation is significantly affected by others and by the overall structure of a geographic market. The model is shown to make relatively good predictions even when the data from recently introduced categories/generations are limited.
Volume (Year): 46 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
- Vijay Mahajan & Robert A. Peterson, 1978. "Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(15), pages 1589-1597, November.
- Jain, Dipak C & Rao, Ram C, 1990. "Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables: Modeling, Estimation, and Findings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 163-70, April.
- John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
- V. Srinivasan & Charlotte H. Mason, 1986. "Technical Note—Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 169-178.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
- Roger M. Heeler & Thomas P. Hustad, 1980. "Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(10), pages 1007-1020, October.
- Shlomo Kalish, 1985. "A New Product Adoption Model with Price, Advertising, and Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(12), pages 1569-1585, December.
- Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:46:y:2000:i:4:p:496-512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.