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Can spillover effects provide forecasting gains? The case of oil price volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis
  • Degiannakis, Stavros
  • Delis, Panagiotis
  • Filis, George

Abstract

We consider spillovers between oil price volatility and key uncertainty indicators. Adding to existing studies, we extend the applicability of the spillover index beyond economic inference, by generating forecasts of oil price volatility. Findings suggest that spillover effects do not contain significant predictive information. This in turn, raises critical questions regarding the usefulness of the spillover index for such task. However, it is critical to collect further evidence for the support of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Degiannakis, Stavros & Delis, Panagiotis & Filis, George, 2019. "Can spillover effects provide forecasting gains? The case of oil price volatility," MPRA Paper 96266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96266
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96266/1/MPRA_paper_96266.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 166, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. FrancisX. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
    4. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 94-114, February.
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    6. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2015. "Oil price forecastability and economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-128.
    7. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil price realized volatility using information channels from other asset classes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 28-49.
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    12. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
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    14. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    15. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 433-447.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; oil price volatility; forecasting; spillover effects;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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