IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/euf/ecopap/0459.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic debt simulation using VAR models and a panel fiscal reaction function – results for a selected number of countries

Author

Listed:
  • João Medeiros

Abstract

This study uses vector auto-regression (VAR) models and a panel fiscal reaction function (FRF) to simulate debt ratios for fifteen EU Member States according to four regimes which are the product of the type of errors (normal or bootstrapped) with the assumption on the structural primary balance (unchanged or determined by a panel FRF). This methodology should be used to make probabilistic assessments on the debt ratio rather than for providing point estimates. Results suggest that debt ratio paths are not normally distributed being positively skewed, and; primary balances show "fiscal fatigue" and partial mean reversion to historical trends. Debt sustainability scenarios should also be run using a FRF or some equivalent "mean reversion" hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • João Medeiros, 2012. "Stochastic debt simulation using VAR models and a panel fiscal reaction function – results for a selected number of countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 459, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2012/ecp459_en.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 18-32.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Shocks, structures or monetary policies? The Euro Area and US after 2001," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2476-2506, August.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 163-185.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 252-265.
    6. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, pages 211-248.
    7. Pablo Burriel & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "MEDEA: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, pages 175-243.
    8. J.E. Boscá & A. Díaz & R. Doménech & J. Ferri & E. Pérez & L. Puch, 2007. "A Rational Expectations Model for Simulation and Policy Evaluation of the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0706, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    9. Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153.
    10. Florence Jaumotte & Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances in the Southern Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 10/139, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Clovis Kerdrain & Isabell Koske & Isabelle Wanner, 2010. "The Impact of Structural Policies on Saving, Investment and Current Accounts," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 815, OECD Publishing.
    12. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. J. Boscá & A. Díaz & R. Doménech & J. Ferri & E. Pérez & L. Puch, 2010. "A rational expectations model for simulation and policy evaluation of the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 135-169, March.
    14. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    15. Jean-Marc Fournier & Isabell Koske, 2010. "A Simple Model of the Relationship Between Productivity, Saving and the Current Account," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 816, OECD Publishing.
    16. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    17. Javier Andrés & Samuel Hurtado & Eva Ortega & Carlos Thomas, 2010. "Spain in the Euro: a general equilibrium analysis," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 67-95, March.
    18. In't Veld, Jan & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2011. "The recent boom-bust cycle: The relative contribution of capital flows, credit supply and asset bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 386-406, April.
    19. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Juillard, Michel & Karamé, Fréderic & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Feb 2018.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:agr:journl:v:3(612):y:2017:i:3(612):p:63-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    3. Carmine Ornaghi & Ilke Van Beveren & Stijn Vanormelingen, 2017. "The impact of service and goods offshoring on employment: firm-level evidence," Working Papers 1704, Council on Economic Policies.
    4. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 26-45.
    5. KPEMOUA, Palakiyèm, 2016. "La Dette Exterieure Handicape T’Elle La Croissance Economique Du Togo ?
      [Is External Debt A Brake On Togo’S Economic Growth?]
      ," MPRA Paper 77403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2017.
    6. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, pages 85-97.
    7. Jean-Marc Fournier & Falilou Fall, 2015. "Limits to government debt sustainability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1229, OECD Publishing.
    8. repec:agr:journl:v:xxiv:y:2017:i:2(611):p:5-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. repec:eee:ecmode:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:30-41 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dg2ecbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.