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Crude Oil Prices and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Forecasting Exercise

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    ()

  • Andreas Breitenfellner

    ()

If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has price setting capacity, (b) a high share of OPEC imports comes from the euro area and (c) alternatives to oil invoicing in US dollar are costly. We give evidence that using information on the US dollar/euro exchange rate (and its determinants) improves oil price forecasts significantly. We discuss possible implications that these results might suggest with regard to the stabilization of oil prices or the adjustment of global imbalances.

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2008-08.

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Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2008-08
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  1. Martin G. Kocher & Ganna Pogrebna & Matthias Sutter, . "The Determinants of Managerial Decisions Under Risk," Working Papers 2008-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  2. Andrea M. Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul A. Raschky, . "Productive disasters? Evidence from European firm level data," Working Papers 2007-25, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  3. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/9, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Martin G. Kocher & Todd L. Cherry & Stephan Kroll & Robert J. Netzer & Matthias Sutter, 2007. "Conditional cooperation on three continents," Working Papers 2007-02, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  5. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Neil Foster & Johann Scharler, 2007. "Barriers to Technology Adoption, International R&D Spillovers and Growth," Working Papers 2007-09, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  6. Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
  7. Michael Hanke & J?rgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Matthias Sutter, 2007. "The economic consequences of a Tobin tax - An experimental analysis," Working Papers 2007-18, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  8. Paul A. Raschky & Manijeh Schwindt, . "Aid, Catastrophes and the Samaritan's Dilemma," Working Papers 2008-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
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