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Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

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  • Li, Xiao-Ping
  • Zhou, Chun-Yang
  • Wu, Chong-Feng

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiao-Ping & Zhou, Chun-Yang & Wu, Chong-Feng, 2017. "Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 656-667.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:656-667
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.045
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    Cited by:

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    3. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Bhattacharya, Mita, 2021. "Movements of oil prices and exchange rates in China and India: New evidence from wavelet-based, non-linear, autoregressive distributed lag estimations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    4. He, Kaijian & Tso, Geoffrey K.F. & Zou, Yingchao & Liu, Jia, 2018. "Crude oil risk forecasting: New evidence from multiscale analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 574-583.
    5. Magdalena Ziolo & Iwona Bak & Anna Spoz & Beata Zofia Filipiak & Jaroslaw Kozuba & Piotr Niedzielski, 2020. "A Sustainable Approach for Financial and Energy Markets: The Perspective of OECD European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 462-487.
    6. Zhu, Huiming & Li, Shuang & Huang, Zishan, 2023. "Frequency domain quantile dependence and connectedness between crude oil and exchange rates: Evidence from oil-importing and exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-30.
    7. He, Chi-Wei & Chang, Kuang-Liang & Wang, Yung-Jang, 2020. "Does the jump risk in the US market matter for Japan and Hong Kong? An investigation on the REIT market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    8. Ahmad, Wasim & Prakash, Ravi & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Chahal, Rishman Jot Kaur & Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Dutta, Anupam, 2020. "On the intraday dynamics of oil price and exchange rate: What can we learn from China and India?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
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    10. Yin, Libo & Ma, Xiyuan, 2018. "Causality between oil shocks and exchange rate: A Bayesian, graph-based VAR approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 434-453.
    11. Ma, Yiqun & Wang, Junhao, 2019. "Co-movement between oil, gas, coal, and iron ore prices, the Australian dollar, and the Chinese RMB exchange rates: A copula approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
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    15. Chowdhury, Kushal Banik & Garg, Bhavesh, 2022. "Has COVID-19 intensified the oil price–exchange rate nexus?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 280-298.

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