Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make us Smart: Evidence from Different Market Experiments
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2019. "Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make us Smart: Evidence from Different Market Experiments," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1538-1584.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2015. "Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make us Smart: Evidence from Different Market Experiments," Working Paper Series 29, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
References listed on IDEAS
- Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019.
"Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
- Wilko Bolt & Maria Demertzis & Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Marco van der Leij, 2014. "Identifying Booms and Busts in House Prices under Heterogeneous Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-157/II, Tinbergen Institute.
- Bolt, W. & Demertzis, D. & Diks, C.G.H. & Van der Leij, M.J., 2014. "Identifying Booms and Busts in House Prices under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-13, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Wilko Bolt & Maria Demertzis & Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Marco van der Leij, 2014. "Identifying Booms and Busts in House Prices under Heterogeneous Expectations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 540, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates,"
Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,
Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012.
"Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments,"
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
- Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2011. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Roger Guesnerie, 2005.
"Assessing Rational Expectations 2: "Eductive" Stability in Economics,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072580, December.
- Roger Guesnerie, 2005. "Assessing Rational Expectations 2: eductive stability in economics," Post-Print halshs-00754853, HAL.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012.
"What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," NBER Working Papers 18400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking" Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1876, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Florian Wagener, 2014.
"Expectations in Experiments,"
Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 421-443, August.
- Wagener, F.O.O., 2013. "Expectations in Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Florian Wagener, 2013. "Expectations in Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-125/II, Tinbergen Institute.
- Jasmina Arifovic & James Bullard & Olena Kostyshyna, 2013.
"Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 38-76, March.
- Jasmina Arifovic & James B. Bullard & Olena Kostyshyna, 2007. "Social learning and monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2007-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E, 1998. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 848-881, September.
- Hommes, Cars & Lux, Thomas, 2013.
"Individual Expectations And Aggregate Behavior In Learning-To-Forecast Experiments,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 373-401, March.
- Hommes, Cars & Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments," Kiel Working Papers 1466, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Hommes, C.H. & Lux, T., 2009. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forcast Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011.
"Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia,"
Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
- Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2007. "Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 06-044, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2005.
"Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 169-196, February.
- Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2002. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,29, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2003. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Economics Working Papers 2003-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009.
"Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
- Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Klaus Adam, 2007.
"Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, April.
- Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 492, European Central Bank.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working papers 9506, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007.
"On learning equilibria,"
Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
- Tuinstra, J. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "On learning equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Florian Wagener & Jan Tuinstra, 2004. "On Learning Equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 217, Society for Computational Economics.
- Tuinstra, J. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2003. "On Learning Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Michael Woodford, 2010.
"Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 274-303, March.
- Woodford, Michael, 2005. "Robustly optimal monetary policy with near-rational expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/12, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Michael Woodford, 2005. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 11896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2021.
"Managing self-organization of expectations through monetary policy: A macro experiment,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-186.
- Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2014. "Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Assenza, Tiziana & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2018. "Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment," TSE Working Papers 18-963, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Tiziana Assenza & P. Heemeijer & C.H. Hommes & D. Massaro, 2021. "Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment," Post-Print hal-03176273, HAL.
- Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014.
"Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
- Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Other publications TiSEM f337739d-e15a-4461-a461-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009.
""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises,"
Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Kopel & Herbert Dawid, 1998. "On economic applications of the genetic algorithm: a model of the cobweb type," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 297-315.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Raoul Philipse, 2013.
"Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 663-688, July.
- Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H. & Philipse, R., 2010. "Evolutionary Selection of Expectations in Positive and Negative Feedback Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2012.
"Individual expectations, limited rationality and aggregate outcomes,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1101-1120.
- Bao, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2010. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, 2012. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014.
"This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,"
Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
- Jan Tuinstra & Claus Weddepohl, 1999. "On the equivalence between the overlapping-generations model and cyclical general-equilibrium models," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 187-207, June.
- Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 2006.
"Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 249-264, March.
- George W. Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. ""Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Dec 2004.
- Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 2001. "Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt41f2h196, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Hommes, Cars, 2011.
"The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
- Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ricardo Nunes, 2010.
"Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
- Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
- John Duffy, 2014. "Macroeconomics in the Laboratory," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 1-10, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Andrea Teglio & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Miguel Ginés-Vilar (ed.), 2013. "Managing Market Complexity," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-31301-1, December.
- Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
- Sims, Christopher A., 2010. "Rational Inattention and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 4, pages 155-181, Elsevier.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working papers 9506, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005.
"Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019.
"Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
- Wilko Bolt & Maria Demertzis & Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Marco van der Leij, 2014. "Identifying Booms and Busts in House Prices under Heterogeneous Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-157/II, Tinbergen Institute.
- Wilko Bolt & Maria Demertzis & Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Marco van der Leij, 2014. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," DNB Working Papers 450, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bolt, W. & Demertzis, D. & Diks, C.G.H. & Van der Leij, M.J., 2014. "Identifying Booms and Busts in House Prices under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-13, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Wilko Bolt & Maria Demertzis & Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Marco van der Leij, 2014. "Identifying Booms and Busts in House Prices under Heterogeneous Expectations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 540, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Nick Feltovich, 2000. "Reinforcement-Based vs. Belief-Based Learning Models in Experimental Asymmetric-Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 605-642, May.
- Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, Decembrie.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017.
"Effects of eliciting long-run price forecasts on market dynamics in asset market experiments,"
Working Papers
halshs-01263661, HAL.
- Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Effects of Eliciting Long-run Price Forecasts on Market Dynamics in Asset Market Experiments," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-26, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
- Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
- Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022.
"Asset price volatility and investment horizons: An experimental investigation,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 19-48.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Aleksei Chernulich & Jan Tuinstra, 2020. "Asset Price Volatility and Investment Horizons: An Experimental Investigation," Working Papers 20200053, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Aug 2020.
- Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 626-673.
- Jasmina Arifovic & Isabelle Salle & Hung Truong, 2023. "History-Dependent Monetary Regimes: A Lab Experiment and a Henk Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-028/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
- Thorp, S. & Bateman, H. & Dobrescu, L.I. & Newell, B.R. & Ortmann, A., 2020. "Flicking the switch: Simplifying disclosure to improve retirement plan choices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
- Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz & Domenico Massaro & Tom Smits, 2017.
"Genetic algorithm learning in a New Keynesian macroeconomic setup,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1133-1155, November.
- Hommes, C.H. & Makarewicz, T.A. & Massaro, D. & Smits, T., 2015. "Genetic Algorithm Learning in a New Keynesian Macroeconomic Setup," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Mikhail Anufriev & John Duffy & Valentyn Panchenko, "undated".
"Planar Beauty Contests,"
Discussion Papers
2019-06, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Mikhail Anufriev & John Duffy & Valentyn Panchenko, 2019. "Planar Beauty Contests," Working Paper Series 2019/10, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Mikhail Anufriev & John Duffy & Valentyn Panchenko, 2019. "Planar Beauty Contests," Working Papers 181907, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, 2021.
"Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments,"
Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 414-433, June.
- Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, "undated". "Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
- Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018.
"Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 51-69.
- Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments," Post-Print hal-01712305, HAL.
- Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023.
"Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
- Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Estimation of Heuristic Switching in Behavioral Macroeconomic Models," Economics Working Papers 2021-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Leonid Serkov & Sergey Krasnykh, 2023. "The Specific Behavior of Economic Agents with Heterogeneous Expectations in the New Keynesian Model with Rigid Prices and Wages," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, February.
- Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2019. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," BERG Working Paper Series 141, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
- Chernulich, Aleksei, 2021. "Modelling reference dependence for repeated choices: A horse race between models of normalisation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
- Annicchiarico, Barbara & Surricchio, Silvia & Waldmann, Robert J., 2019.
"A behavioral model of the credit cycle,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-83.
- Barbara Annicchiarico & Silvia Surricchio & Robert J. Waldmann, 2018. "A Behavioral Model of the Credit Cycle," CEIS Research Paper 446, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 Oct 2018.
- Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
- Deborah Noguera & Gabriel Montes-Rojas, 2023. "Minskyan model with credit rationing in a network economy," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-26, March.
- Hommes, Cars & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Price level versus inflation targeting under heterogeneous expectations: a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 39-82.
- Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
- Anufriev, Mikhail & Arifovic, Jasmina & Ledyard, John & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2022. "The role of information in a continuous double auction: An experiment and learning model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
- Domenico Colucci & Matteo Vigna & Vincenzo Valori, 2022. "Large and uncertain heterogeneity of expectations: stability of equilibrium from a policy maker standpoint," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 319-348, January.
- Bao, Te & Füllbrunn, Sascha & Pei, Jiaoying & Zong, Jichuan, 2024. "Reading the market? Expectation coordination and theory of mind," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 510-527.
- Noussair, Charles N. & Popescu, Andreea Victoria, 2021. "Comovement and return predictability in asset markets: An experiment with two Lucas trees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 671-687.
- Tomasz Makarewicz, 2017. "Contrarian Behavior, Information Networks and Heterogeneous Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 231-279, August.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014.
"Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance,"
Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Assenza, T. & Bao, T. & Massaro, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
- Hommes, Cars H., 2014.
"Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria,"
Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
- Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-17, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Cars Hommes, 2013. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-204/II, Tinbergen Institute.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012.
"Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments,"
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
- Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2011. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Cars Hommes, 2010. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: some evidence from the lab," Post-Print hal-00753041, HAL.
- Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2019.
"Monetary policy under behavioral expectations: Theory and experiment,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 193-212.
- Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Matthias Weber, 2015. "Monetary Policy under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-087/II, Tinbergen Institute.
- Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Matthias Weber, 2017. "Monetary Policy under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 42, Bank of Lithuania.
- Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
- Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017.
"Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises,"
Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
- Assenza, T. & Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 2012. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Amplification and Duration of Crises," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hommes, Cars, 2011.
"The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
- Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2012.
"Individual expectations, limited rationality and aggregate outcomes,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1101-1120.
- Bao, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2010. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, 2012. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz & Domenico Massaro & Tom Smits, 2017.
"Genetic algorithm learning in a New Keynesian macroeconomic setup,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1133-1155, November.
- Hommes, C.H. & Makarewicz, T.A. & Massaro, D. & Smits, T., 2015. "Genetic Algorithm Learning in a New Keynesian Macroeconomic Setup," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014.
"Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
- Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Other publications TiSEM f337739d-e15a-4461-a461-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Annicchiarico, Barbara & Surricchio, Silvia & Waldmann, Robert J., 2019.
"A behavioral model of the credit cycle,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-83.
- Barbara Annicchiarico & Silvia Surricchio & Robert J. Waldmann, 2018. "A Behavioral Model of the Credit Cycle," CEIS Research Paper 446, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 30 Oct 2018.
- Zhu, Jiahua & Bao, Te & Chia, Wai Mun, 2021. "Evolutionary selection of forecasting and quantity decision rules in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 363-404.
- Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 626-673.
- Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, 2021.
"Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments,"
Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 414-433, June.
- Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, "undated". "Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
- Anufriev, Mikhail & Bao, Te & Tuinstra, Jan, 2016.
"Microfoundations for switching behavior in heterogeneous agent models: An experiment,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 74-99.
- Anufriev, M. & Bao, T. & Tuinstra, J., 2015. "Microfoundations for Switching Behavior in Heterogeneous Agent Models: An Experiment," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Te Bao & Jan Tuinstra, 2015. "Microfoundations for Switching Behavior in Heterogeneous Agent Models: An Experiment," Working Paper Series 31, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Bao, Te & Hennequin, Myrna & Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico, 2020. "Coordination on bubbles in large-group asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2019. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," BERG Working Paper Series 141, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
More about this item
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-EXP-2016-09-11 (Experimental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2016-09-11 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:15-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cees C.G. Diks (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnuvanl.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.