IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/74573.html

Estimation and prediction of an Index of Financial Safety of Tunisia

Author

Listed:
  • Matkovskyy, Roman
  • Bouraoui, Taoufik
  • Hammami, Helmi

Abstract

This paper analyses the strength of the financial system of Tunisia through the construction of an Index of Financial Safety (IFS). Over the period 2000Q1 – 2014Q3, the IFS is built using a wide range of financial and macroeconomic indicators. The empirical results show that it can capture the disturbances in Tunisian financial system with sufficient accuracy. The nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm of training was selected to forecast changes in IFS, and provides significant results.

Suggested Citation

  • Matkovskyy, Roman & Bouraoui, Taoufik & Hammami, Helmi, 2015. "Estimation and prediction of an Index of Financial Safety of Tunisia," MPRA Paper 74573, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74573/1/MPRA_paper_74573.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    2. Miss Rita Babihuga, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Financial Soundness Indicators: An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2007/115, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    4. John Horn, 1965. "A rationale and test for the number of factors in factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 30(2), pages 179-185, June.
    5. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    6. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Osborne-Kinch, Jenny & Holton, Sarah, 2010. "A Discussion of the Monetary Condition Index," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 68-80, January.
    8. Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
    9. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran94-1, January.
    11. Blomström, Magnus & Kokko, Ari & Globerman, Steve, 2000. "The Determinants of Host Country Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Suk Hun Lee, 1993. "Relative Importance of Political Instability and Economic Variables on Perceived Country Creditworthiness," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 24(4), pages 801-812, December.
    13. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    14. Caggiano, Giovanni & Calice, Pietro & Leonida, Leone, 2014. "Early warning systems and systemic banking crises in low income countries: A multinomial logit approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 258-269.
    15. Magnus Blomström & Ari Kokko & Mario Zejan, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59861-4, October.
    16. Demekas, Dimitri G. & Horvath, Balazs & Ribakova, Elina & Wu, Yi, 2007. "Foreign direct investment in European transition economies--The role of policies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 369-386, June.
    17. Raja HMILI & Taoufik BOURAOUI, 2015. "Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crisis in Asian Countries," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 1-8.
    18. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-596, September.
    20. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.
    21. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    22. Xu, Bin, 2000. "Multinational enterprises, technology diffusion, and host country productivity growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 477-493, August.
    23. World Bank, 2014. "The Unfinished Revolution : Bringing Opportunity, Good Jobs and Greater Wealth to All Tunisians [La Révolution Inachevée : Créer des opportunités, des emplois de qualité et de la richesse pour tous les tunisiens]," World Bank Publications - Reports 20267, The World Bank Group.
    24. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matkovskyy, Roman & Bouraoui, Taoufik & Hammami, Helmi, 2016. "Analysing the financial strength of Tunisia: An approach to estimate an index of financial safety," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 485-493.
    2. Crespo, Nuno & Fontoura, Maria Paula, 2007. "Determinant Factors of FDI Spillovers - What Do We Really Know?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 410-425, March.
    3. Lidiia Karpenko & Oleksandr Ignatenko & Olena Taranenko & Iryna Oliinyk & Ripsime Khrenova-Shymkina, 2021. "Layer and structural components of modern investment security of the country," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(3), pages 367-383, March.
    4. Matija Rojec & Mark Knell, 2018. "Why Is There A Lack Of Evidence On Knowledge Spillovers From Foreign Direct Investment?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 579-612, July.
    5. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Magda Ciżkowicz-Pękała & Piotr Pękała & Andrzej Rzońca, 2017. "The effects of special economic zones on employment and investment: a spatial panel modeling perspective," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 571-605.
    6. Mastromarco, Camilla & Ghosh, Sucharita, 2009. "Foreign Capital, Human Capital, and Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 489-502, February.
    7. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Fortuna, Natércia, 2010. "Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-350, April.
    8. David Mayer‐Foulkes & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2009. "Do Multinational Enterprises Contribute to Convergence or Divergence? A Disaggregated Analysis of US FDI," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 304-318, May.
    9. Benzaim, Samia & Ftiti, Zied & Khedhaouria, Anis & Djermane, Rebai, 2023. "US foreign investments: Technology transfer, relative backwardness, and the productivity growth of host countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 275-295.
    10. Hamza Belfqih & Ahlam Qafas & Mounir Jerry, 2022. "Investigating the Nexus Between FDI and Institutional Quality: Evidence from Morocco," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(3), pages 390-418, September.
    11. Ahmed, Elsadig Musa, 2012. "Are the FDI inflow spillover effects on Malaysia's economic growth input driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1498-1504.
    12. Sinani, Evis & Meyer, Klaus E., 2004. "Spillovers of technology transfer from FDI: the case of Estonia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 445-466, September.
    13. Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar, 2021. "Latent heterogeneity to evaluate the effect of human capital on world technology frontier," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 71-89, April.
    14. Piva, Mariacristina., 2004. "The impact of technology transfer on employment and income distribution in developing countries : a survey of theoretical models and empirical studies," ILO Working Papers 993666903402676, International Labour Organization.
    15. Razzaq, Asif & An, Hui & Delpachitra, Sarath, 2021. "Does technology gap increase FDI spillovers on productivity growth? Evidence from Chinese outward FDI in Belt and Road host countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    16. Allaj, Erindi & Sanfelici, Simona, 2023. "Early Warning Systems for identifying financial instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1777-1803.
    17. Mr. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2001. "Determinants of, and the Relation Between, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: A Summary of the Recent Literature," IMF Working Papers 2001/175, International Monetary Fund.
    18. P. Srinivasan & M. Kalaivani, 2015. "Determinants of Foreign Institutional Investment in India: An Empirical Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(3), pages 364-376, June.
    19. Naijela Janaina Costa Silveira & Diogo Ferraz & Eduardo Polloni‐Silva & Diego Scarpa de Mello & Fernanda Pereira Sartori Falguera & Herick Fernando Moralles, 2022. "Modeling the building blocks of country‐level absorptive capacity: Comparing developed and emergent economies," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 783-824, July.
    20. repec:lic:licosd:15605 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Della Temenggung, 2007. "Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: Indonesian Manufacturing Industry’s Experience 1975-2000," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_048, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.