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Assessing Income Convergence with a Long-Run Forecasting Approach: Some New Results

Author

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  • Silva Lopes, Artur

Abstract

Relying on low frequency econometric methods, a new simple procedure to assess international income convergence is introduced. It implements the long-run forecasting definition and discards short and medium-term information contents of the data as these may produce misleading evidence. Robustness to non-stationarities is achieved using first differences of (logged) per capita incomes. Application to a selected sample of 90 different countries provides mixed but generally more positive evidence than most previous studies. Nevertheless, it casts many doubts on the inevitability of income convergence, at least in practically relevant time frames and as worldwide phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Silva Lopes, Artur, 2024. "Assessing Income Convergence with a Long-Run Forecasting Approach: Some New Results," MPRA Paper 120143, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:120143
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/120143/1/MPRA_paper_120143.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ncome convergence; growth empirics; low frequency; interval forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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