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Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots

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  • Buonanno, Paolo
  • Puca, Marcello

Abstract

Real-time tracking of epidemic helps governments and health authorities make timely data-driven decisions. Official mortality data, whenever reliable and available, is usually published with a substantial delay. We report results of using newspapers obituaries to “nowcast” the mortality levels observed in Italy during the COVID-19 outbreak between February 24, 2020 and April 15, 2020. Mortality levels predicted using obituaries outperform forecasts based on past mortality according to several performance metrics, making obituaries a potentially valid alternative source of information to deal with epidemic surveillance.

Suggested Citation

  • Buonanno, Paolo & Puca, Marcello, 2021. "Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(4), pages 535-540.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:125:y:2021:i:4:p:535-540
    DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.01.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James H. Stock, 2020. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus," NBER Working Papers 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    3. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "How Deadly is COVID-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of its Fatality Rate," Staff Report 598, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Paolo Buonanno & Sergio Galletta & Marcello Puca, 2020. "Estimating the severity of COVID-19: Evidence from the Italian epicenter," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-13, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fazio, Andrea & Reggiani, Tommaso & Sabatini, Fabio, 2022. "The political cost of sanctions: Evidence from COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(9), pages 872-878.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Forecasting; Excess mortality; Big data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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