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Estimating the severity of COVID-19: Evidence from the Italian epicenter

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  • Paolo Buonanno
  • Sergio Galletta
  • Marcello Puca

Abstract

We provide results on the level of COVID-19 excess mortality in the Italian region of Lombardy and in the province of Bergamo using official and original data sources. Since February 2020 Lombardy and in particular the province of Bergamo have been severely hit by the novel COVID-19 infectious disease. Combining official statistics, retrospective data and original data (i.e., obituaries and death notices) we provide a tentative estimate of the number of deaths either directly or indirectly, associated with COVID-19 as well as the total number of persons infected. Our findings suggest that the reported number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 identified by public authorities accounts only for one half of the observed excess mortality between March 2020 and previous years.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Buonanno & Sergio Galletta & Marcello Puca, 2020. "Estimating the severity of COVID-19: Evidence from the Italian epicenter," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0239569
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239569
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    Cited by:

    1. Durante, Ruben & Guiso, Luigi & Gulino, Giorgio, 2021. "Asocial capital: Civic culture and social distancing during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. Dorn, Florian & Lange, Berit & Braml, Martin & Gstrein, David & Nyirenda, John L.Z. & Vanella, Patrizio & Winter, Joachim & Fuest, Clemens & Krause, Gérard, 2023. "The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions – Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Nicola Borri & Francesco Drago & Chiara Santantonio & Francesco Sobbrio, 2021. "The “Great Lockdown”: Inactive workers and mortality by Covid‐19," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(10), pages 2367-2382, September.
    4. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    5. Buonanno, Paolo & Puca, Marcello, 2021. "Using newspaper obituaries to “nowcast” daily mortality: Evidence from the Italian COVID-19 hot-spots," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(4), pages 535-540.
    6. Berta, P. & Lovaglio, P.G. & Paruolo, P. & Verzillo, S., 2020. "Real Time Forecasting of Covid-19 Intensive Care Units demand," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 20/16, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: Social distancing intensity and duration," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Borsati, Mattia & Nocera, Silvio & Percoco, Marco, 2022. "Questioning the spatial association between the initial spread of COVID-19 and transit usage in Italy," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

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