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Is South Africa the South Africa we all desire? Insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in South Africa from 1960 to 2017, the study investigates GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that South African GDP per capita data is I (1). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is indeed stable and quite reliable. The results of the study indicate that living standards in South Africa may improve but very slowly over the next decade, unless prudent macroeconomic management practices are exercised. The paper offers 5 main policy prescriptions in an effort to help policy makers in South Africa on how to promote and maintain the much awaited growth and development.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Is South Africa the South Africa we all desire? Insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92441
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    2. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara & Bertrand Pluyaud, 2012. "Monthly Gdp Forecasting Using Bridge Models: Application For The French Economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 53-70, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; GDP per capita; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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