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Where is Kenya being headed to? Empirical evidence from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in Kenya from 1960 to 2017, the study analyzes GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Kenyan GDP per capita data is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is stable and reliable. The results of the study indicate that living standards in Kenya will improve over the next decade, as long as the prudent macroeconomic management continues in Kenya. Indeed, Kenya’s economy is growing. The study offers 3 policy prescriptions in an effort to help policy makers in Kenya on how to promote and maintain the much needed growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Where is Kenya being headed to? Empirical evidence from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 91395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91395
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara & Bertrand Pluyaud, 2012. "Monthly Gdp Forecasting Using Bridge Models: Application For The French Economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 53-70, December.
    2. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    3. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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