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The population question in Zimbabwe: reliable projections from the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach

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  • Nyoni, Thabani

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Zimbabwe from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that Zimbabwe annual total population is neither I (1) nor I (2) but for the sake of simplicity,we assume it is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 2) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented model is stable andacceptable. The results of the study indicate that total population in Zimbabwe will continue to increase in the next three decades. In order to enjoy the benefits of the Ahlburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecy, 2 policy prescriptions have been put forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "The population question in Zimbabwe: reliable projections from the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 96791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96791
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96791/1/MPRA_paper_96791.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1999. "Population and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 145-149, May.
    2. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    4. du Preez, Johann & Witt, Stephen F., 2003. "Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: an application to international tourism demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 435-451.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA; forecasting; population growth; population policy; total population; Zimbabwe;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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