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Una propuesta de reforma del sistema de pensiones español basada en un modelo de contribución definida nocional = A Proposal for Reforming the Spanish Pension System Based on a Notional Defined Contribution Model

Author

Listed:
  • Valero, Diego

    () (Dpto. de Econometría, Estadística y Economía Española. Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Artís, Manuel

    () (Dpto. de Econometría, Estadística y Economía Española. Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Ayuso, Mercedes

    () (Dpto. de Econometría, Estadística y Economía Española. Universitat de Barcelona)

  • García, Jaime

    () (Dpto. de Econometría, Estadística y Economía Española. Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

Los sistemas occidentales de pensiones, y especialmente el español, se van a ver notablemente afectados por el proceso de envejecimiento poblacional que se está produciendo. Este artículo propone un modelo de pensiones para España que implica profundas reformas estructurales que garanticen el cumplimiento de los objetivos que un sistema de Seguridad Social persigue. La propuesta implica una combinación de vías para abordar esa reforma integral, que conduce básicamente al establecimiento de una pensión básica de carácter general financiada con impuestos, una pensión contributiva obtenida de la aplicación de un modelo de contribución definida nocional (CDN) y una tercera pensión derivada de un sistema complementario ocupacional de afiliación automática, al que hemos llamado sistema nacional de ahorro (SNA). Han sido realizadas proyecciones hasta el año 2039 y los resultados se presentan tanto en términos de pensión de jubilación (indicador de adecuación del modelo) como de gasto referido al PIB (indicador de viabilidad). El artículo analiza las magnitudes de equilibrio del sistema actual de Seguridad Social en España, pone de manifiesto su inviabilidad financiera en los términos actuales a medio y largo plazo y sugiere que, matemáticamente, un modelo como el propuesto es financieramente sostenible y a través del establecimiento de un período de transición, en el que los recursos actuales del Fondo de Reserva serían utilizados, puede adecuarse a las necesidades de la población. The western pension systems and especially the Spanish one will noticeably be affected by an aging of the population that is currently underway. This work proposes a pension model for Spain which would mean deep structural reforms that would guarantee meeting the objectives established by a Social Security system. Our proposal considers a reform that leads to the establishment of a general basic pension fund financed through taxes; a contributory pension fund reached by applying a notional defined contribution model (NDC); and thirdly, an occupational system based on an auto-enrollment system, which we have called the National Saving System (NSS). Projections have been done up to the year 2039 with conclusive results with regard to retirement pensions (indicating the suitability of the model) as well as the GDP relative cost (indicating viability). We analyze how the Spanish Social Security system is an unbalanced one. Our work reveals its lack of sustainability in financial terms, both in the medium and long term. We demonstrate how the new model we are proposing is financially sustainable, and along with a transition period in which the current resources from the Reserve Fund would be used, it would be suitable for the needs of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Valero, Diego & Artís, Manuel & Ayuso, Mercedes & García, Jaime, 2011. "Una propuesta de reforma del sistema de pensiones español basada en un modelo de contribución definida nocional = A Proposal for Reforming the Spanish Pension System Based on a Notional Defined Contri," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 11(1), pages 91-113, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:11:y:2011:i:1:p:91-113
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Seguridad Social; sistemas CDN; planes de pensiones complementarios; autoafiliación; Social Security; NDC system; complementary pension plans; auto-enrollment;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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