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Az állami költségvetés makrogazdasági kockázatainak elemzése
[Analysing macroeconomic risks in the state budget]

  • Báger, Gusztáv
  • Galbács, Péter
  • Pulay, Gyula
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    A cikk bemutatja az Állami Számvevőszék gyakorlatában újnak tekinthető elemzési rendszer metodológiai keretét, amely segítette a döntéshozók munkáját a 2012. évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat megítélésében. A szerzők összefoglaló jelleggel ismertetik az átfogó kockázatelemzésből adódó fontosabb megállapításaikat. Rámutatnak arra a jelentős kockázatra, amely abból adódik, hogy a GDP növekedése elmarad a potenciális növekedéstől és a 1,5 százalékos kormányzati célértéktől. Ennek tulajdoníthatóan a versenyszférában a foglalkoztatás nem bővül. A lassabb gazdasági növekedés kockázata nemcsak az exportdinamika csökkenésének, hanem a beruházások elégtelen növekedésének, valamint a háztartási fogyasztás további visszaesésének is következménye. A szerzők 100-150 milliárd forint nagyságú egyenlegjavító kormányzati intézkedésre és az állami költségvetés nagyobb tartalékára tesznek javaslatot. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E61, E22, E27 és C53.

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    Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

    Volume (Year): LIX (2012)
    Issue (Month): 9 ()
    Pages: 1014-1036

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    Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1336
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    1. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    2. Raymond Torres & Peter Jarrett & Wim Suyker, 1989. "Modelling Business Sector Supply for the Smaller OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 71, OECD Publishing.
    3. Emanuele Forlani, 2010. "Competition in the Service Sector and the Performances of Manufacturing Firms: Does Liberalization Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2942, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Pintea, Mihaela, 2006. "Public and private production in a two-sector economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-302, June.
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