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Az állami költségvetés makrogazdasági kockázatainak elemzése
[Analysing macroeconomic risks in the state budget]

Author

Listed:
  • Báger, Gusztáv
  • Galbács, Péter
  • Pulay, Gyula

Abstract

A cikk bemutatja az Állami Számvevőszék gyakorlatában újnak tekinthető elemzési rendszer metodológiai keretét, amely segítette a döntéshozók munkáját a 2012. évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat megítélésében. A szerzők összefoglaló jelleggel ismertetik az átfogó kockázatelemzésből adódó fontosabb megállapításaikat. Rámutatnak arra a jelentős kockázatra, amely abból adódik, hogy a GDP növekedése elmarad a potenciális növekedéstől és a 1,5 százalékos kormányzati célértéktől. Ennek tulajdoníthatóan a versenyszférában a foglalkoztatás nem bővül. A lassabb gazdasági növekedés kockázata nemcsak az exportdinamika csökkenésének, hanem a beruházások elégtelen növekedésének, valamint a háztartási fogyasztás további visszaesésének is következménye. A szerzők 100-150 milliárd forint nagyságú egyenlegjavító kormányzati intézkedésre és az állami költségvetés nagyobb tartalékára tesznek javaslatot. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E61, E22, E27 és C53.

Suggested Citation

  • Báger, Gusztáv & Galbács, Péter & Pulay, Gyula, 2012. "Az állami költségvetés makrogazdasági kockázatainak elemzése [Analysing macroeconomic risks in the state budget]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 1014-1036.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "Potential Output Estimations for Hungary: A Survey of Different Approaches," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/43, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
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    5. Gábor Kátay & Zoltán Wolf, 2008. "Driving Factors of Growth in Hungary - a Decomposition Exercise," MNB Working Papers 2008/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    6. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
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    8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Báger, Gusztáv, 2015. "Investment Ebb and Flow in the Hungarian Economy," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 60(2), pages 147-170.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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