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The new approaches in econometric research of financial markets. Distributed volatility

  • V. I. Tinyakova

    ()

    (Chair of Information Technologies and Mathematical Methods in Economy, Voronezh State University (Voronezh, Russia))

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    Volatility is one of the most important characteristics of any financial instrument return. The idea which states that all information about financial assets is contained in its price is implemented in current approaches to modeling the volatility of financial assets and it corresponds well with the efficient market hypothesis. Therefore, all volatility models use only the information contained in the price of the asset is being modeled. In this paper we propose an approach that implements the assumption that the volatility of an asset depends on the market volatility. But the relationship is not correlation-regression, though this may exist, but is probabilistic, in the sense that the probability of the high volatility of any asset increases with the volatility of the financial market. To implement this approach, a model which helps to evaluate the distributed volatility is offered. Distributed volatility, however, as VaR, helps to evaluate the positive and negative part of volatility, but unlike VaR, describes volatility dynamics. So it allows forecast calculation of the financial asset volatility, particularly in estimation of the intrinsic value of stock options.

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    File URL: http://reaser.eu/RePec/rse/wpaper/30_Tinyakova_Reaser4_p247-255.pdf
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    Article provided by Pro Global Science Association in its journal Published in Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Decembre)
    Pages: 247-255

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    Handle: RePEc:rse:wpaper:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:247-255
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    1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    2. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
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