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A real-time analysis of the Swiss trade account

  • Jan Jacobs

    ()

    (Faculty of Economics University of Groningen)

  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

    (KOF, ETH Zurich, Switzerland and CESifo, Munich, Germany)

First estimates of trade account statistics attract quite some attention in the media as they contain substantial information on recent economic developments. It is well known, however, that subsequent revisions of in particular this series can sometimes have substantial consequences for ex post evaluations of the economy. As a small open economy, Swiss overall growth as measured by its GDP is particularly prone for these revisions. This paper sets up a real-time dataset which is then used to analyze to what extent the first release of current account data (as compared to its revision) contains a structural bias and/or can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by KOF at the ETH Zurich. If this is the case, this would allow for improvements in its future first release and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy

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File URL: http://repec.org/mmf2006/up.10144.1159525837.pdf
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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 with number 167.

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Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:167
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html

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  1. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2009. "VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 181-190, July.
  2. Howrey, E Philip, 1984. "Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 386-93, August.
  3. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1205, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2006. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(509), pages F119-F135, 02.
  5. Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-19, June.
  7. repec:dgr:rugccs:200505 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
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