A real-time analysis of the Swiss trade account
First estimates of trade account statistics attract quite some attention in the media as they contain substantial information on recent economic developments. It is well known, however, that subsequent revisions of in particular this series can sometimes have substantial consequences for ex post evaluations of the economy. As a small open economy, Swiss overall growth as measured by its GDP is particularly prone for these revisions. This paper sets up a real-time dataset which is then used to analyze to what extent the first release of current account data (as compared to its revision) contains a structural bias and/or can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by KOF at the ETH Zurich. If this is the case, this would allow for improvements in its future first release and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy
|Date of creation:||02 Feb 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Howrey, E Philip, 1984. "Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 386-93, August.
- Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2005.
"UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0502, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000.
"News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2009.
"VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 181-190, July.
- Kishor, N. Kundan & Koenig, Evan F., 2005. "VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision," Working Papers 0501, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008.
"Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
- Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
- Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1205, CESifo Group Munich.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.