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Impact of Population Aging on Japanese International Travel

Author

Listed:
  • James Mak

    () (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Lonny Carlile

    (Center for Japanese Studies, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Sally Dai

    () (East-West Center)

Abstract

In this paper we forecast Japanese international travel to 2025. In addition to the usual economic variables, our model also captures both population aging and cohort effects on Japanese travel abroad. We predict the number of future Japanese overseas trips for males and females separately by five-year age groups and in five-year increments. We conclude that the Japanese will continue to travel abroad in increasing numbers but population aging will dramatically slow overall future Japanese overseas travel. While the number of “senior” travelers is predicted to increase sharply, we foresee fewer overseas trips taken by Japanese, especially among women, in the 20s and early 30s age groups. Finally, we examine the responses of the industry and the public sector in Japan to implications of a rapidly aging population on future international travel

Suggested Citation

  • James Mak & Lonny Carlile & Sally Dai, 2004. "Impact of Population Aging on Japanese International Travel," Working Papers 200408, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200408
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    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_04-8.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2004
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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