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Risk management of risk under the Basel Accord: forecasting value-at-risk of VIX futures

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-lin Chang
  • Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín
  • Michael McAleer
  • Teodosio Pérez-Amaral

Abstract

Purpose - The Basel II Accord requires that banks and other authorized deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure value-at-risk (VaR). The risk estimates of these models are used to determine capital requirements and associated capital costs of ADIs, depending in part on the number of previous violations, whereby realized losses exceed the estimated VaR. The purpose of this paper is to address the question of risk management of risk, namely VaR of VIX futures prices. Design/methodology/approach - The authors examine how different risk management strategies performed before, during and after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Findings - The authors find that an aggressive strategy of choosing the supremum of the univariate model forecasts is preferred to the other alternatives, and is robust during the GFC. Originality/value - The paper examines how different risk management strategies performed before, during and after the 2008-2009 GFC, and finds that an aggressive strategy of choosing the supremum of the univariate model forecasts is preferred to the other alternatives, and is robust during the GFC.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2011. "Risk management of risk under the Basel Accord: forecasting value-at-risk of VIX futures," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(11), pages 1088-1106, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:mfipps:v:37:y:2011:i:11:p:1088-1106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Investments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 196-200, February.
    2. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Value At Risk Under The Basel Ii Accord," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 850-855, December.
    5. McAleer, Michael & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Perez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "GFC-robust risk management strategies under the Basel Accord," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 97-111.
    6. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 722-729, June.
    7. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "On Adaptive Estimation in Nonstationary ARMA Models with GARCH Errors," ISER Discussion Paper 0548, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    8. Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
    9. Pérignon, Christophe & Deng, Zi Yin & Wang, Zhi Jun, 2008. "Do banks overstate their Value-at-Risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 783-794, May.
    10. Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
    11. McAleer, Michael & Wiphatthanananthakul, Chatayan, 2010. "A simple expected volatility (SEV) index: Application to SET50 index options," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2079-2090.
    12. Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 0000. "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management during the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-039/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. McAleer, M.J. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2008. "A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value-at-risk," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "Model Selection and Testing of Conditional and Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-57, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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    17. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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    20. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Optimizing Value-At-Risk And Daily Capital Charges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 831-849, December.
    21. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
    22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2015. "A Stochastic Dominance Approach to the Basel III Dilemma: Expected Shortfall or VaR?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-056/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Amaral, Teodosio Perez, 2013. "The rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 151-167.
    3. Casarin, Roberto & Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "Risk management of risk under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX futures," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 183-204.
    4. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2015. "The golden target: analyzing the tracking performance of leveraged gold ETFs," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 278-297, August.
    5. Chang, Chia-Lin & Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel & Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2015. "A stochastic dominance approach to financial risk management strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 472-485.
    6. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:194-204 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chao Wang & Qian Chen & Richard Gerlach, 2017. "Bayesian Realized-GARCH Models for Financial Tail Risk Forecasting Incorporating Two-sided Weibull Distribution," Papers 1707.03715, arXiv.org.
    8. Chang, C-L. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & Maasoumi, E. & McAleer, M.J., 2015. "Choosing Expected Shortfall over VaR in Basel III Using Stochastic Dominance," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Richard Gerlach & Chao Wang, 2016. "Bayesian Semi-parametric Realized-CARE Models for Tail Risk Forecasting Incorporating Realized Measures," Papers 1612.08488, arXiv.org.
    10. repec:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:61-:d:150249 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International finance; Banks; Regulations; Risk management; Median strategy; Value-at-risk (VaR); Daily capital charges; Violation penalties; Optimizing strategy; Basel II Accord; VIX futures;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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