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Estimating critical mass in the global cellular telephony market

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Grajek

    (ESMT European School of Management and Technology)

  • Tobias Kretschmer

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

Abstract

Critical Mass is a common feature of technology diffusion processes. We develop a structural model of demand with network effects to provide a rigorous definition of critical mass as a function of installed base, price and network effects. Using data from the digital cellular telephony market, we identify critical mass phenomena and find that differences in the critical mass point in different countries rest mainly on different countries’ socioeconomic characteristics and the extent of competition in a country. This application illustrates that our demand model can be operationalized easily and can generate theoretically grounded empirical insights about critical mass phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Grajek & Tobias Kretschmer, 2008. "Estimating critical mass in the global cellular telephony market," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-08-004 (R1), ESMT European School of Management and Technology, revised 15 Apr 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:esm:wpaper:esmt-08-004
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    File URL: http://static.esmt.org/publications/workingpapers/ESMT-08-004_R1.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grajek, Michal, 2010. "Estimating network effects and compatibility: Evidence from the Polish mobile market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 130-143, May.
    2. Grajek, Michal & Kretschmer, Tobias, 2009. "Usage and diffusion of cellular telephony, 1998-2004," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-249, March.
    3. Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 1997. "Will It Every Fly? Modeling the Takeoff of Really New Consumer Durables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 256-270.
    4. Cantillon, Estelle & Yin, Pai-Ling, 2008. "Competition between Exchanges: Lessons from the Battle of the Bund," CEPR Discussion Papers 6923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Joanna Stavins, 2004. "Network Externalities and Technology Adoption: Lessons from Electronic Payments," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(2), pages 260-276, Summer.
    6. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2004. "Survey on Competing in Network Industries: Firm Strategies, Market Outcomes, and Policy Implications," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-31, March.
    7. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2004. "Entry, Standards and Competition: Firm Strategies and the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 26(1), pages 89-113, November.
    8. Tobias Kretschmer, 2008. "SPLINTERING AND INERTIA IN NETWORK INDUSTRIES -super-," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 685-706, December.
    9. Wesley Hartmann & Puneet Manchanda & Harikesh Nair & Matthew Bothner & Peter Dodds & David Godes & Kartik Hosanagar & Catherine Tucker, 2008. "Modeling social interactions: Identification, empirical methods and policy implications," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 287-304, December.
    10. van den Bulte, C. & Stremersch, S., 2003. "Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-077-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lechman, Ewa, 2014. "The ‘technological take-off’ and the 'critical mass'. A trial conceptualization," MPRA Paper 59506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. A. Laura Baraldi, 2012. "The size of the critical mass as a function of the strength of network externalities: a mobile telephone estimation," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 373-396, June.
    3. Nina Czernich, 2011. "The emergence of broadband internet and consequences for economic and social development," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 37, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    critical mass; network effects; technology diffusion; cellular telephony;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising

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