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Usage and diffusion of cellular telephony, 1998-2004

  • Michal Grajek

    (ESMT European School of Management and Technology)

  • Tobias Kretschmer

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität)

We study the dynamics of usage intensity of second-generation cellular telephony over the diffusion curve. Specifically, we address two questions: First, can we draw conclusions about the underlying drivers of technology diffusion by studying usage intensity? Second, what is the effect of high penetration of previous generations and competing networks on network usage intensity? Using an operator-level panel covering 41 countries with quarterly data over 6 years, we find that heterogeneity among adopters dominates network effects and that different technological generations are complements in terms of usage, but substitutes in terms of subscription.

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Paper provided by ESMT European School of Management and Technology in its series ESMT Research Working Papers with number ESMT-07-003.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 27 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Industrial Organization 27(2): 238–249 .
Handle: RePEc:esm:wpaper:esmt-07-003
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  1. Michal Grajek, 2003. "Estimating Network Effects and Compatibility in Mobile Telecommunications," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-26, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  2. Koski, Heli & Kretschmer, Tobias, 2002. "Entry, Standards and Competition : Firm Strategies and the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony," Discussion Papers 824, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  3. Stephen P. Ryan & Catherine Tucker, 2011. "Heterogeneity and the Dynamics of Technology Adoption," NBER Working Papers 17253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 2000. "The Evolution of Markets Under Entry and Standards Regulation - The Case of Global Mobile Telecommunications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Rodini, Mark & Ward, Michael R. & Woroch, Glenn A., 0. "Going mobile: substitutability between fixed and mobile access," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5-6), pages 457-476, June.
  9. Joseph Farrell & Paul Klemperer, 2006. "Co-ordination and Lock-in: Competition with Switching Costs and Network Effects," Economics Papers 2006-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  10. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2002. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 545, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Feb 2003.
  11. Barros, Pedro Luis Pita & Cadima, Nuno, 2000. "The Impact of Mobile Phone Diffusion on the Fixed-Link Network," CEPR Discussion Papers 2598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Jonathan Beck & Michal Grajek & Christian Wey, 2005. "Hypermarket Competition and the Diffusion of Retail Checkout Barcode Scanning," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 523, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  13. Ahn, Hyungtaik & Lee, Myeong-Ho, 1999. "An econometric analysis of the demand for access to mobile telephone networks," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 297-305, September.
  14. Nakil Sung & Yong-Hun Lee, 2002. "Substitution between Mobile and Fixed Telephones in Korea," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 367-374, June.
  15. Doganoglu, Toker & Grzybowski, Lukasz, 2007. "Estimating network effects in mobile telephony in Germany," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 65-79, March.
  16. Diego Comin & Bart Hobijn & Emilie Rovito, 2006. "Five Facts You Need to Know About Technology Diffusion," NBER Working Papers 11928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Trajtenberg, Manuel & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1989. "The Diffusion of Innovations: A Methodological Reappraisal," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 35-47, January.
  18. Massoud Karshenas & Paul L. Stoneman, 1993. "Rank, Stock, Order, and Epidemic Effects in the Diffusion of New Process Technologies: An Empirical Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(4), pages 503-528, Winter.
  19. Liikanen, Jukka & Stoneman, Paul & Toivanen, Otto, 2004. "Intergenerational effects in the diffusion of new technology: the case of mobile phones," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1137-1154, November.
  20. Geroski, Paul A, 1999. "Models of Technology Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 2146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Doganoglu, Toker & Wright, Julian, 2006. "Multihoming and compatibility," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 45-67, January.
  22. Shy, Oz, 1996. "Technology revolutions in the presence of network externalities," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 785-800, October.
  23. Swann, G. M. Peter, 2002. "The functional form of network effects," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 417-429, September.
  24. Trichy V. Krishnan & Frank M. Bass & Dipak C. Jain, 1999. "Optimal Pricing Strategy for New Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(12), pages 1650-1663, December.
  25. Eugenio J. Miravete & Lars-Hendrik Röller, 2003. "Estimating Markups under Nonlinear Pricing Competition," CIG Working Papers SP II 2003-21, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  26. Sridhar Narayanan & Pradeep Chintagunta & Eugenio Miravete, 2007. "The role of self selection, usage uncertainty and learning in the demand for local telephone service," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, March.
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