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Diffusion of new technology generations in mobile communications

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  • Bohlin, Anders
  • Gruber, Harald
  • Koutroumpis, Pantelis

Abstract

The study identifies factors that affect the diffusion of new generations of mobile telecommunications technologies. Per capita income, urbanisation and Internet/broadband penetration, as well as regulation, positively affect diffusion across all generations of mobile technologies. However, there are also several remarkable differences in diffusion patterns over generations. Diffusion of first generation technologies boosts the adoption process of second generation networks, but second generation adoption negatively affects adoption of third generation technologies. Second generation technologies are unaffected by the spread of third generation technologies. Competition between firms has been found to be the key determinant of the diffusion speed across all generations, but there are indications that the effect is dissipating in the transition from second to third generation. Second generation markets show a switch in the influence of standards competition, with a positive effect on diffusion in the early phase and a negative effect later on.

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  • Bohlin, Anders & Gruber, Harald & Koutroumpis, Pantelis, 2010. "Diffusion of new technology generations in mobile communications," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 51-60, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:iepoli:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:51-60
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    13. Lee, Sangwon & Marcu, Mircea & Lee, Seonmi, 2011. "An empirical analysis of fixed and mobile broadband diffusion," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 227-233.
    14. Gross, Robert & Hanna, Richard & Gambhir, Ajay & Heptonstall, Philip & Speirs, Jamie, 2018. "How long does innovation and commercialisation in the energy sectors take? Historical case studies of the timescale from invention to widespread commercialisation in energy supply and end use technolo," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 682-699.
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    16. Lee, Sangwon & Lee, Seonmi & Joo, Hye Min, 2018. "A cross-country analysis of Over-the-Top video market growth: A panel data analysis," 22nd ITS Biennial Conference, Seoul 2018. Beyond the boundaries: Challenges for business, policy and society 190420, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    17. Atif Awad, 2023. "Information and communication technologies role in alleviating poverty in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Impacts and transmission channels," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 1149-1165, April.
    18. Yi-Tui Chen & Fu-Chiang Yang & Shih-Heng Yu, 2017. "The Diffusion Effect of MSW Recycling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    20. Lim, Hyungsoo & Jun, Duk Bin & Hamoudia, Mohsen, 2019. "A choice-based diffusion model for multi-generation and multi-country data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 163-173.
    21. Gruber, Harald & Koutroumpis, Pantelis, 2011. "Procompetitive infrastructure sector regulation and diffusion of innovation: The case of broadband networks," 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest 2011: Innovative ICT Applications - Emerging Regulatory, Economic and Policy Issues 52161, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    22. Kim, Yong Jin & Lee, Duk Hee, 2020. "Technology convergence networks for flexible display application: A comparative analysis of latecomers and leaders," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
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    24. ., 2014. "Restructuring among mobile service providers: a ten-year perspective," Chapters, in: Mobile Telecommunications Networks, chapter 1, pages 1-25, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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