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Diffusion of new technology generations in mobile communications

  • Bohlin, Anders
  • Gruber, Harald
  • Koutroumpis, Pantelis
Registered author(s):

    The study identifies factors that affect the diffusion of new generations of mobile telecommunications technologies. Per capita income, urbanisation and Internet/broadband penetration, as well as regulation, positively affect diffusion across all generations of mobile technologies. However, there are also several remarkable differences in diffusion patterns over generations. Diffusion of first generation technologies boosts the adoption process of second generation networks, but second generation adoption negatively affects adoption of third generation technologies. Second generation technologies are unaffected by the spread of third generation technologies. Competition between firms has been found to be the key determinant of the diffusion speed across all generations, but there are indications that the effect is dissipating in the transition from second to third generation. Second generation markets show a switch in the influence of standards competition, with a positive effect on diffusion in the early phase and a negative effect later on.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Information Economics and Policy.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 51-60

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:iepoli:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:51-60
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505549

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    1. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2004. "Entry, Standards and Competition: Firm Strategies and the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 89-113, November.
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    4. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
    5. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-97, May.
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    7. Jun, Duk B. & Kim, Seon K. & Park, Yoon S. & Park, Myoung H. & Wilson, Amy R., 2002. "Forecasting telecommunication service subscribers in substitutive and competitive environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-581.
    8. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
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    11. Liikanen, Jukka & Stoneman, Paul & Toivanen, Otto, 2004. "Intergenerational effects in the diffusion of new technology: the case of mobile phones," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1137-1154, November.
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