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Diffusion of new technology generations in mobile communications

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  • Bohlin, Anders
  • Gruber, Harald
  • Koutroumpis, Pantelis

Abstract

The study identifies factors that affect the diffusion of new generations of mobile telecommunications technologies. Per capita income, urbanisation and Internet/broadband penetration, as well as regulation, positively affect diffusion across all generations of mobile technologies. However, there are also several remarkable differences in diffusion patterns over generations. Diffusion of first generation technologies boosts the adoption process of second generation networks, but second generation adoption negatively affects adoption of third generation technologies. Second generation technologies are unaffected by the spread of third generation technologies. Competition between firms has been found to be the key determinant of the diffusion speed across all generations, but there are indications that the effect is dissipating in the transition from second to third generation. Second generation markets show a switch in the influence of standards competition, with a positive effect on diffusion in the early phase and a negative effect later on.

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  • Bohlin, Anders & Gruber, Harald & Koutroumpis, Pantelis, 2010. "Diffusion of new technology generations in mobile communications," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 51-60, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:iepoli:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:51-60
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    7. Houngbonon, Georges V. & Le Quentrec, Erwan, 2019. "Access to Electricity and ICT Usage: A Country-level Assessment on Sub-Saharan Africa," 2nd Europe – Middle East – North African Regional ITS Conference, Aswan 2019: Leveraging Technologies For Growth 201728, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
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    9. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid, 2022. "The broadband diffusion process and its determinants in Algeria: A simultaneous estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1309, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    10. Sangwon Lee & Seonmi Lee & Hyemin Joo & Yoonjae Nam, 2021. "Examining Factors Influencing Early Paid Over-The-Top Video Streaming Market Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, May.
    11. Gerpott, Torsten J. & Ahmadi, Nima, 2015. "Determinants of willingness to look for separate international roaming services—An empirical study of mobile communication customers in Germany," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 192-203.
    12. Saurabh Panwar & P. K. Kapur & Ompal Singh, 2021. "Predicting diffusion dynamics and launch time strategy for mobile telecommunication services: an empirical analysis," Information Technology and Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 33-51, March.
    13. Harald Gruber & Pantelis Koutroumpis, 2013. "Competition enhancing regulation and diffusion of innovation: the case of broadband networks," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 168-195, April.
    14. Lee, Sangwon & Marcu, Mircea & Lee, Seonmi, 2011. "An empirical analysis of fixed and mobile broadband diffusion," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 227-233.
    15. Gross, Robert & Hanna, Richard & Gambhir, Ajay & Heptonstall, Philip & Speirs, Jamie, 2018. "How long does innovation and commercialisation in the energy sectors take? Historical case studies of the timescale from invention to widespread commercialisation in energy supply and end use technolo," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 682-699.
    16. Yi-Tui Chen & Fu-Chiang Yang & Shih-Heng Yu, 2017. "The Diffusion Effect of MSW Recycling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Gruber, Harald & Koutroumpis, Pantelis, 2011. "Procompetitive infrastructure sector regulation and diffusion of innovation: The case of broadband networks," 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest 2011: Innovative ICT Applications - Emerging Regulatory, Economic and Policy Issues 52161, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    18. Sheikh Taher ABU, 2014. "Competition and Innovation in Telecom Sector: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(1), pages 27-39.
    19. Wang, I. Kim & Qian, Lihong & Lehrer, Mark, 2017. "From technology race to technology marathon: A behavioral explanation of technology advancement," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-197.
    20. Curwen, Peter & Whalley, Jason, 2013. "Mapping worldwide mobile networks: Some problems and indicative solutions," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 1150-1165.
    21. Liu, Feng & Zhao, Shaoqiong & Li, Yang, 2017. "How many, how often, and how new? A multivariate profiling of mobile app users," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 71-80.
    22. Lee, Sangwon & Lee, Seonmi & Joo, Hye Min, 2018. "A cross-country analysis of Over-the-Top video market growth: A panel data analysis," 22nd ITS Biennial Conference, Seoul 2018. Beyond the boundaries: Challenges for business, policy and society 190420, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    23. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Forecasting in telecommunications and ICT—A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1126.
    24. Lim, Hyungsoo & Jun, Duk Bin & Hamoudia, Mohsen, 2019. "A choice-based diffusion model for multi-generation and multi-country data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 163-173.
    25. Kim, Yong Jin & Lee, Duk Hee, 2020. "Technology convergence networks for flexible display application: A comparative analysis of latecomers and leaders," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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