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Conditional variance forecasts for long-term stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Enno Mammen

    (University of Heidelberg, Germany)

  • Jens Perch Nielsen

    (Cass Business School, City, University of London, UK)

  • Michael Scholz

    (University of Graz, Austria)

  • Stefan Sperlich

    (Universite de Geneve, Switzerland)

Abstract

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, including the short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate, earnings-by-price ratio, and inflation. In particular, we apply and implement in a two-step procedure a fully nonparametric smoother with the covariates and the smoothing parameters chosen via cross-validation. We find that volatility forecastability is much less important at longer horizons regardless of the chosen model and that the homoscedastic historical average of the squared return prediction errors gives an adequate approximation of the unobserved realized conditional variance for both the one-year and five-year horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Enno Mammen & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz & Stefan Sperlich, 2019. "Conditional variance forecasts for long-term stock returns," Graz Economics Papers 2019-08, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:grz:wpaper:2019-08
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    File URL: http://www100.uni-graz.at/vwlwww/forschung/RePEc/wpaper/2019-08.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vali Asimit & Ioannis Kyriakou & Jens Perch Nielsen, 2020. "Special Issue “Machine Learning in Insurance”," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-2, May.
    2. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2020. "Longer-Term Forecasting of Excess Stock Returns—The Five-Year Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Short-Term Exuberance and Long-Term Stability: A Simultaneous Optimization of Stock Return Predictions for Short and Long Horizons," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Gerrard, Russell & Hiabu, Munir & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Vodička, Peter, 2020. "Long-term real dynamic investment planning," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 90-103.
    5. José María Sarabia & Faustino Prieto & Vanesa Jordá & Stefan Sperlich, 2020. "A Note on Combining Machine Learning with Statistical Modeling for Financial Data Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-14, April.
    6. Christian Fieberg & Daniel Metko & Thorsten Poddig & Thomas Loy, 2023. "Machine learning techniques for cross-sectional equity returns’ prediction," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(1), pages 289-323, March.
    7. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2020. "Short-Term Exuberance and long-term stability: A simultaneous optimization of stock return predictions for short and long horizons," Graz Economics Papers 2020-20, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    8. Parastoo Mousavi, 2021. "Debt-by-Price Ratio, End-of-Year Economic Growth, and Long-Term Prediction of Stock Returns," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-18, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Benchmark; Cross-validation; Prediction; Stock return volatility; Long-term forecasts; Overlapping returns; Autocorrelation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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