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Macroeconomic Estimations For The Romanian “Pre-Accession Economic Program” (The 2003 Version)


  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    () (National Institute of Economic Research, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)


The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence of many under performing companies, under use or even complete blockage of other capacities, undercapitalization of a large part of the viable part of the economy, a relatively high burden of taxation. On the demand side, one can mention the contraction of real absorption and limited access to the external markets. The implications of Balassa – Samuelson effect is taken into account. The second and third sections discuss the computational hypothesis and numerical estimations for two scenarios, a desirable and a moderate one, considered by the author as the most relevant for the period 2003-2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2003. "Macroeconomic Estimations For The Romanian “Pre-Accession Economic Program” (The 2003 Version)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 23-49, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2003:i:4:p:23-49

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "How to Improve the SPF Forecasts?," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(2), pages 153-165, April.

    More about this item


    economic models; macroeconomics; forecasting; economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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