IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201615.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Terror Attacks Affect the Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate? A Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Turkey ; Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Germany)

  • Mark Wohar

    (Department of Economics, University of Nebraska-Omaha, USA ; Loughborough University, UK)

Abstract

While much significant research has been done to study the effects of terror attacks on stock markets, less is known about the response of exchange rates to terror attacks. We suggest a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test to study whether (relative) terror attacks affect exchange-rate returns and volatility. Using data on the dollar-pound exchange rate to illustrate the test, we show that terror attacks mainly affect the lower and upper quantiles of the conditional distribution of exchange-rate returns. Terror attacks also affect almost all quantiles of the conditional distribution of exchange-rate volatility, where the significance of the effect is particularly strong for the lower quantiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Mark Wohar, 2016. "Do Terror Attacks Affect the Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate? A Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Analysis," Working Papers 201615, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201615
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    2. Helena Chulia & Francisco Climent & Pilar Soriano & Hipolit Torro, 2009. "Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 607-619.
    3. Eldor, Rafi & Melnick, Rafi, 2004. "Financial markets and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 367-386, June.
    4. Chen, Andrew H. & Siems, Thomas F., 2004. "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 349-366, June.
    5. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
    6. Jeong, Kiho & Härdle, Wolfgang K. & Song, Song, 2012. "A Consistent Nonparametric Test For Causality In Quantile," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 861-887, August.
    7. Nishiyama, Yoshihiko & Hitomi, Kohtaro & Kawasaki, Yoshinori & Jeong, Kiho, 2011. "A consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality—Specification in time series regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(1), pages 112-127.
    8. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
    9. Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
    10. Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo‐Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do terror attacks predict gold returns? Evidence from a quantile-predictive-regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 276-284.
    2. Christos Bouras & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman, 2020. "Geopolitical Risks, Returns, and Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence from a Panel GARCH Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(8), pages 1841-1856, July.
    3. Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2019. "Predicting stock market movements with a time-varying consumption-aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 458-467.
    4. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 367-379, April.
    5. Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Manager Sentiment and Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 201853, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mehmet Balcilar, 2018. "The Long-run Effect of Geopolitical Risks on Insurance Premiums," Working Papers 15-44, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    7. Salisu, Afees A. & Cuñado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Geopolitical risks and historical exchange rate volatility of the BRICS," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 179-190.
    8. Nicholas Apergis & Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201671, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Terror attacks and stock-market fluctuations: evidence based on a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test for the G7 countries," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 333-346, March.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    3. Nicholas Apergis & Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201671, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do terror attacks predict gold returns? Evidence from a quantile-predictive-regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 276-284.
    5. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    6. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
    7. Kollias, Christos & Manou, Efthalia & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Stock markets and terrorist attacks: Comparative evidence from a large and a small capitalization market," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 64-77.
    8. Chaudhry, Naukhaiz & Roubaud, David & Akhter, Waheed & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Impact of terrorism on stock markets: Empirical evidence from the SAARC region," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 230-234.
    9. Ofir D. Rubin & Rico Ihle, 2017. "Measuring Temporal Dimensions of the Intensity of Violent Political Conflict," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 621-642, June.
    10. Kong, Dongmin & Xiong, Mengxu & Xiang, Junyi, 2021. "Terrorist attacks and energy firms' crash risk in stock markets: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Procasky, William J. & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2016. "Terrorism and its impact on the cost of debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-266.
    12. Imtiaz Arif & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from a Front-line State," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 365-378, April.
    13. Anastasios Zopiatis & Christos S. Savva & Neophytos Lambertides & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Tourism stocks in times of crises: An econometric investigation of non-macro factors," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-18, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    14. Gan Jin & Md Rafiul Karim & Günther G. Schulze, 2024. "The Stock Market Effects of Islamist versus Non-Islamist Terror," Discussion Paper Series 45 JEL Classification: D7, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Feb 2024.
    15. Goel, Sanjay & Cagle, Seth & Shawky, Hany, 2017. "How vulnerable are international financial markets to terrorism? An empirical study based on terrorist incidents worldwide," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 120-132.
    16. Fatma Ben Moussa & Mariem Talbi, 2019. "Stock Market Reaction to Terrorist Attacks and Political Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Tunisian Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 48-64.
    17. Anastasios Zopiatis & Christos S. Savva & Neophytos Lambertides & Michael McAleer, 2017. "Tourism Stocks in Times of Crises: An Econometric Investigation of Unexpected Non-macroeconomic Factors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-052/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
    19. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2017. "Analyzing the determinants of terrorist attacks and their market reactions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 57-73.
    20. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Geopolitical risk and volatility spillovers in oil and stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 358-366.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; returns; volatility; nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test; terror attacks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201615. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.