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Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches

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  • Arranz, M.

Abstract

Our analysis was performed with data from 10 EEC countries in the period 1962-86 and is devoted to the changes in the structure of private consumption with respect to eight commodity groups. We began with eleven different approaches from which we chose four. In turn we then compared them with the SKIM model. A total of 880 equations have been estimated during the period 1962-84 and from that source of information we evaluated the forecasting accuracy for the period 1984-86. The main conclusion is that the Skim model, presented in this paper, generally performs better than the other models considered (Rotterdam, loglinear, LES, Deaton and Muellbauer, etc.) Una versión actualizada de este documento está disponible gratuitamente en la serie de documentos "Economic Development" de la Asociación Euroamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo Económico, con el número 54. http://www.usc.es/economet/aea.htm An updated version of this paper is downloadable free in the series "Economic Development" edited by the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, with the number 54. http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm

Suggested Citation

  • Arranz, M., 1996. "Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches," Faculty of Economics 04, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Faculty of Economics, Applied Econometric and Quantitative Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:scaeqs:04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barten, A. P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-73.
    2. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
    3. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guisan, M.C. & Arranz, M., 2001. "Consumption expenditure on Health and Education: Econometric models and evolution of OECD countries 1970-96," Economic Development 50, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast; Consumption; Europe; Models;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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