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L’Indicateur Synthétique Mensuel d’Activité (ISMA) : une révision

Author

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  • Darné, O.
  • Brunhes-Lesage, V.

Abstract

This paper proposes new bridge equations for the Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) published by the Banque de France. The MIBA is a forecasting tool for the quarterly GDP growth in France both for the current quarter and the next quarter, originally based on the surveys in the industrial sector published in the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) conducted by the Banque de France. Two improvements are suggested: first, from a technical viewpoint, we use an automatic model selection procedure which brings a robust, clear and systematic framework for selecting variables; second, from a modelling viewpoint, we take into account the business surveys in the services sector published by the Banque de France. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated.

Suggested Citation

  • Darné, O. & Brunhes-Lesage, V., 2007. "L’Indicateur Synthétique Mensuel d’Activité (ISMA) : une révision," Working papers 171, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mogliani, Matteo & Darné, Olivier & Pluyaud, Bertrand, 2017. "The new MIBA model: Real-time nowcasting of French GDP using the Banque de France's monthly business survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 26-39.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conjunctural analysis ; GDP forecasting ; Bbridge equations ; Business surveys.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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