IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kof/wpskof/09-229.html

Trade, aid, remittances and migration

Author

Listed:
  • Sule Akkoyunlu

Abstract

I investigated whether migration is interrelated with trade, aid and remittances so that any policies that consider trade, aid and remittances also affect the decision to migrate. We developed and estimated an empirical model of Turkish migration to Germany and tested the model for the 1969-2004, using the cointegration technique. A single cointegrating vector is found among the gross migration inflows and the following explanatory variables: the relative income ratio between Germany and Turkey, the unemployment rates in Germany and Turkey, aid, the trade intensity variable and the ratio of manufacturing exports with Germany to total exports with Germany and remittances as a ratio of Turkish GDP. The results of this study show that migration, trade, aid and remittances are interrelated, however, migration will be better managed when the dynamic gains from trade and aid are considered. Hence, the broad-based and rapid economic development with increase in income is the only effective means of reducing migration pressures in a labour-surplus country. This is mainly because the income differential is the most significant factor in determining migration flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Sule Akkoyunlu, 2009. "Trade, aid, remittances and migration," KOF Working papers 09-229, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-229
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005859381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005859381
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3929/ethz-a-005859381?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2007. "Explaining U.S. Immigration, 1971-1998," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 359-373, May.
    2. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    3. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760, Elsevier.
    4. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    5. Dan-Olof Rooth, 2007. "Implicit Discrimination in Hiring – Real World Evidence," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 0705, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    6. Hatton, Timothy J, 1995. "A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-415, August.
    7. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    9. Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Dış ticaret, ekonomik yardım, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve göçmen dövizleri Türkiye'den olan göçü frenleyebilir mi?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(4), pages 311-327, December.
    2. Akkoyunlu, Şule & Epstein, Gil S. & Gang, Ira N., 2022. "Migration and University Education: An Empirical (Macro) Link," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1096, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi, 2014. "Trade, Remittances and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Causal Relationship?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 274-285, June.
    4. Şule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Intervening Opportunities and Competing Migrants in Turkish migration to Germany, 1969-2008," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(2), pages 155-175, May.
    5. Fariastuti Djafar & Mohd Khairul Hisyam Hassan, 2013. "Does Trade With Labour Sending Countries Reduce Demand for Migrant Workers: A Lesson from Malaysia," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1325-1336, October.
    6. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2010. "Can trade, aid, foreign direct investments and remittances curb migration from Turkey?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 7(2), pages 144-158, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Şule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Intervening Opportunities and Competing Migrants in Turkish migration to Germany, 1969-2008," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(2), pages 155-175, May.
    2. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Dış ticaret, ekonomik yardım, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve göçmen dövizleri Türkiye'den olan göçü frenleyebilir mi?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(4), pages 311-327, December.
    3. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp691 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    5. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2010. "Can trade, aid, foreign direct investments and remittances curb migration from Turkey?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 7(2), pages 144-158, October.
    6. Christie Smith & Christoph Thoenissen, 2018. "Migration and Business Cycle Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2018-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016. "Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
    8. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "TIPS and the VIX: Non-linear Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation," Working Papers 1502, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    9. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2010. "Are Turkish Migrants Altruistic?," KOF Working papers 10-246, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    10. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    11. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.
    12. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
    13. Lewis, Ethan & Peri, Giovanni, 2015. "Immigration and the Economy of Cities and Regions," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 625-685, Elsevier.
    14. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    15. Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2018. "International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes," IZA Discussion Papers 11978, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Tang, Sam Hak Kan & Wang, Yichen & Wang, Yong, 2025. "Curse of low-skilled emigration on human capital formation: Evidence from the migration surge of the 2000s," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Jordi Ripollés & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "African Asylum Seekers in Europe: The Interplay between Foreign Aid and Governance in Origin Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 829-865, November.
    18. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2024. "What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 743-760, August.
    19. Daniel Meierrieks & Laura Renner, 2017. "Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 977-1005, July.
    20. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2008. "From individual attitudes towards migrants to migration policy outcomes: Theory and evidence [‘Immigration policy, assimilation of immigrants and natives’ sentiments towards immigrants: Evidence fr," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(56), pages 652-713.
    21. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/koethch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.