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Trade, aid, remittances and migration

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  • Sule Akkoyunlu

Abstract

I investigated whether migration is interrelated with trade, aid and remittances so that any policies that consider trade, aid and remittances also affect the decision to migrate. We developed and estimated an empirical model of Turkish migration to Germany and tested the model for the 1969-2004, using the cointegration technique. A single cointegrating vector is found among the gross migration inflows and the following explanatory variables: the relative income ratio between Germany and Turkey, the unemployment rates in Germany and Turkey, aid, the trade intensity variable and the ratio of manufacturing exports with Germany to total exports with Germany and remittances as a ratio of Turkish GDP. The results of this study show that migration, trade, aid and remittances are interrelated, however, migration will be better managed when the dynamic gains from trade and aid are considered. Hence, the broad-based and rapid economic development with increase in income is the only effective means of reducing migration pressures in a labour-surplus country. This is mainly because the income differential is the most significant factor in determining migration flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Sule Akkoyunlu, 2009. "Trade, aid, remittances and migration," KOF Working papers 09-229, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-229
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005859381
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    Cited by:

    1. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Dış ticaret, ekonomik yardım, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve göçmen dövizleri Türkiye'den olan göçü frenleyebilir mi?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(4), pages 311-327, December.
    2. Akkoyunlu Åžule & Gil Epstein & Ira Gang, 2022. "Migration and University Education: An Empirical (Macro) Link," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2211, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    3. Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi, 2014. "Trade, Remittances and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Causal Relationship?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 274-285, June.
    4. Şule Akkoyunlu, 2012. "Intervening Opportunities and Competing Migrants in Turkish migration to Germany, 1969-2008," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 9(2), pages 155-175, May.
    5. Fariastuti Djafar & Mohd Khairul Hisyam Hassan, 2013. "Does Trade With Labour Sending Countries Reduce Demand for Migrant Workers: A Lesson from Malaysia," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(10), pages 1325-1336, October.
    6. Sule Akkoyunlu, 2010. "Can trade, aid, foreign direct investments and remittances curb migration from Turkey?," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 7(2), pages 144-158, October.

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    Keywords

    Trade; Aid; Remittances; Migration; Cointegration;
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