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GDP Growth and Credit Data

  • Ergun Ermisoglu
  • Yasin Akcelik
  • Arif Oduncu

It is a well-known fact that there is a strong relationship between bank credit and economic activity. Thus, it is a reasonable question whether credit data can be used in nowcasting GDP growth. It is important for policymakers to make on-time decisions with the most available data. Most macroeconomic variables are made available to public after a considerable delay; however, bank credit data may be very valuable for the early estimate of current GDP as it is available only with a few days delay. In this paper, we aim to investigate the feasibility of using credit data in explaining the variability in Turkish GDP growth as well as nowcasting it. For this purpose, we use credit impulse and new borrowing, two measures of credit flows. We show that both are significant in explaining the pattern of the Turkish GDP growth and have significant contribution in nowcasting it.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/PUBLICATIONS/Research/Working+Paperss/2013/13-27
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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1327.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1327
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  1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
  2. Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun & Mahmut Gunay, 2012. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP Growth," Working Papers 1233, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  3. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
  4. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
  6. A. Hakan Kara & S. Tolga Tiryaki, 2013. "Kredi Ivmesi ve Iktisadi Konjonktur," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1310, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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