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The Ex Post Rational Price is Certainly Ex Post, It Might Be Rational, But Is It Useful?

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  • Kamstra, M.

Abstract

This paper investigates the ex post rational price of Shiller (1981) to determine if it is a reliable guide to fundamental valuations of dividend-yielding assets. The ex post rational price is widely used to determine whether stock market price movements are rational responses to market news or not, and as such may prove pivotal to policy-makers in determining regulation of new and existing capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamstra, M., 1998. "The Ex Post Rational Price is Certainly Ex Post, It Might Be Rational, But Is It Useful?," Discussion Papers dp98-05, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp98-05
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    Keywords

    PRICING ; PRICES;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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