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Modeling the Open Macro-Economy of Vietnam

Author

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  • Lord, Montague J.

Abstract

The present macroeconomic model aims to provide a theory-consistent representation of the general structure of the Viet Nam economy and, as such, it offers real and financial sector forecasting and policy simulation capabilities targeted to the needs of the State Bank of Viet Nam. The model serves a dual purpose. First, it provides a framework for making rational and consistent predictions about Viet Nam's overall economic activity, the standard components of the balance of payments, and the production and expenditure concepts of the national accounts. Secondly, it offers a means of quantitatively evaluating the impact of exchange rate policies and other policy changes on the Vietnamese economy, and assessing the feedback effects that changes in key macroeconomic variables of the economy produce in other sectors. The modeling procedure has sought to account for the structure of the Viet Nam economy, the availability of data, and the degree of stability of time-series estimates of parameters during the country's transition process. The present model therefore aims to provide a mechanism to link policies and targets while, at the same time, providing an easy and adaptable means of both forecasting key macroeconomic variables and simulating the interrelationships between economic policy initiatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Lord, Montague J., 1998. "Modeling the Open Macro-Economy of Vietnam," MPRA Paper 41164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41164
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41164/1/MPRA_paper_41164.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Lord, Montague J., 2000. "Viet Nam: Small Scale Technical assistance for Capacity Building of Ministry of Finance to Support Tariff, Industry and Subsidy Analysis for the WTO Accession," MPRA Paper 41158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lord, Montague, 2002. "Vietnam’s Export Competitiveness: Trade and Macroeconomic Policy Linkages," MPRA Paper 50638, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vietnam; macroeconometric model; time-series analysis; model simulations;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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