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Un'analisi quantitativa delle politiche di rientro dal disavanzo pubblico in Italia

  • Francesco Carlucci


    (Sapienza Universita' di Roma)

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    The governments of advanced countries have faced the economic crisis by means of measures that considerably increase their budget deficits. Now they have to absorb these increases, but at the same time supporting recovery. To solve this problem, two different types of intervention have been hypothesized. The first consists of a set of tightening measures devoted to quickly reducing deficit. The second fosters measures devoted to supporting aggregate demand, postponing the reduction of budget deficit to the time when economic activity will grow again. Predictable results of the two hypotheses are determined through an econometric model, changed by modifications simulating, separately, the measures hypothesized in each intervention.

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    Article provided by Economia civile in its journal Moneta e Credito.

    Volume (Year): 64 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 254 ()
    Pages: 135-175

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    Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2011:24
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    1. Francesco Daveri & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2005. "Italy's Decline: Getting the Facts Right," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 64(4), pages 365-410, December.
    2. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    3. Francesco Nucci, 2008. "Italy’S Decline: Getting The Facts Right: Comment," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 67(1), pages 103-115, March.
    4. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2010. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brow09-1, July.
    8. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Lopes de Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & José R. Maria, 2010. "Fiscal stimulus and exit strategies in a small euro area economy," Working Papers w201023, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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