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A unfi ed view of systemic risk: detecting SIFIs and forecasting the fi nancial cycle via EWSs

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  • Alessandro Spelta

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
    Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

Abstract

Following the defi nition of systemic risk by the Financial Stability Board, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements, this paper proposes a method able to simultaneously address the two dimensions in which this risk materializes: namely the cross-sectional and the time dimension. The method is based on the W-TOPHITS algorithm, that exploits the connectivity information of an evolving network, and decomposes its tensor representation as the outer product of three vectors: borrowing, lending and time scores. These vectors can be interpreted as indices of the systemic importance of borrowing and lending associated with each fi nancial institution and of the systemic importance associated with each period, coherently with the realization of the whole network in that period. The time score, being able to simultaneously consider the temporal distribution of the whole traded volume over time as well as the spatial distribution of the transactions between players in each period, turns out to be a useful Early Warning Signal of the fi nancial crisis. The W-TOPHITS is tested on the e-MID interbank market dataset and on the BIS consolidated banking statistics with the aim of discovering Systemically Important Financial Institutions and to show how the time score is able to signal a change in the bipartite network of borrowers and lenders that heralds the fall of the traded volume that occurred during the 2007/2009 nancial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Spelta, 2016. "A unfi ed view of systemic risk: detecting SIFIs and forecasting the fi nancial cycle via EWSs," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def036, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie1:def036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tiziana Assenza & Domenico Delli Gatti & Jakob Grazzini & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and International Trade: The role of productivity and financial fragility," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def042, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Irene Torrini & Claudio Lucifora & Antonio Russo, 2022. "The Long-Term Effects of Hospitalization on Health Care Expenditures: An Empirical Analysis for the Young-Old Population," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def117, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic Risk; Tensor; Early Warning Signals; Evolving Networks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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