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Fiscal Marksmanship in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Zakaria

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Shujat Ali

    (Joint Secretary, Ministry of Finance, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

Abstract

Using Theil’s inequality coefficient based on the mean square prediction error, this paper evaluates the forecasting efficiency of the central government budget and revised budget estimates in Pakistan for the period 1987/88 to 2007/08 and decomposes the errors into biasedness, unequal variation and random components to analyze the source of error. The results reveal that budgetary forecasting is inefficient in Pakistan and the error is due mainly to exogenous variables (random factors). We also find that neither the budget nor revised budget estimates of revenue and expenditure satisfy the criteria of rational expectations of forecasting. Further, there is very little evidence of improvement in the efficiency of budgetary forecasts over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Zakaria & Shujat Ali, 2010. "Fiscal Marksmanship in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 113-133, Jul-Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:113-133
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
    2. Chakraborty, Lekha S & Sinha, Darshy, 2008. "Budgetary Forecasting in India: Partitioning Errors and Testing for Rational Expectations," MPRA Paper 7538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. D. A. L. Auld, 1970. "Fiscal Marksmanship in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 507-511, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Nithin K. & Roy, Rathin, 2014. "Finance Commission of India's Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers 14/141, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Rathin Roy, 2015. "Finance Commission of India’s Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers id:6581, eSocialSciences.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget; Forecast errors; Theil’s inequality coefficient; rational expectations; Pakistan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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