IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/npf/wpaper/14-141.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Finance Commission of India's Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Nithin K.

    () (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade)

  • Roy, Rathin

    () (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

We explore the normative fiscal assessments of the Finance Commission of India, and realisation of fiscal policy with regard to Central Finances over the period 1990-2012. We employ the Theil's inequality coefficient to investigate the magnitude of assessment errors and its partitioning in to bias, slope and random components. Furthermore, this paper also evaluates the efficiency, biasedness and persistence of forecast errors. The robustness of the efficiency results are confirmed with the application of maximum entropy bootstrap. The objective of this study is to examine the structural basis on which Finance Commissions make their awards rather than examining the predictability of the forecasts. The story of Finance Commissions assessments reflects an interesting political economy theatre of contention between aspirations and outcomes. Our key findings are as follows: Firstly, source of errors for assessments of tax revenue, non-tax revenue, interest payments, defence revenue expenditure, plan revenue expenditure and fiscal deficit is principally due to random component. However the errors in the remaining economic parameters originate due to systemic components i.e. mean and slope errors. Secondly, the expenditure side predictability is lower than the revenue side predictability

Suggested Citation

  • Nithin K. & Roy, Rathin, 2014. "Finance Commission of India's Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers 14/141, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:14/141
    Note: Working Paper 141, 2014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2014/10/WP_2014_141.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
    2. Masahiro Ashiya, 2003. "The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 331-333.
    3. William H. Hoyt & Richard A. Jensen, 1995. "Precommitment and State and Local Policy Coordination," Public Economics 9508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
    5. Michael Keen, 1998. "Vertical Tax Externalities in the Theory of Fiscal Federalism," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 454-485, September.
    6. Sen, Tapas K. & Dash, Santosh K., 2013. "Fiscal Imbalances and Indebtedness across Indian States: Recent Trends," Working Papers 13/119, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Rangarajan, C. & Srivastava, D.K., 2004. "Fiscal transfer in Canada: Drawing comparisons and lessons," Working Papers 04/18, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    8. repec:npf:wpaper:18 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chakraborty, Lekha S & Sinha, Darshy, 2008. "Budgetary Forecasting in India: Partitioning Errors and Testing for Rational Expectations," MPRA Paper 7538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Cepparulo, Alessandra & Gastaldi, Francesca & Giuriato, Luisa & Sacchi, Agnese, 2011. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy:the Italian case," MPRA Paper 32474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. D. A. L. Auld, 1970. "Fiscal Marksmanship in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 507-511, August.
    12. Caplan, Arthur J. & Cornes, Richard C. & Silva, Emilson C. D., 2000. "Pure public goods and income redistribution in a federation with decentralized leadership and imperfect labor mobility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 265-284, August.
    13. Mundle, Sudipto & M.Govinda Rao & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2011. "Stimulus, Recovery and Exit Policy G20 Experience and Indian Strategy," Working Papers 11/85, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:14/141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (S.Siva Chidambaram). General contact details of provider: http://www.nipfp.org.in .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.