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The Role of Dynamic Specification in Forecasting Volatility in the Presence of Jumps and Noisy High-Frequency Data

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  • Rasmus Tangsgaard Varneskov

    () (School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper considers the performance of different long-memory dynamic models when forecasting volatility in the stock market using implied volatility as an exogenous variable in the information set. Observed volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components in a framework that allows for consistent estimation in the presence of market microstructure noise. A comparison between a class of HAR- and ARFIMA models is facilitated on the basis of out-of-sample forecasting performance. Implied volatility conveys incremental information about future volatility in both specifications, improving performance both in- and out-of-sample for all models. Furthermore, the ARFIMA class of models dominates the HAR speciations in terms of out-of-sample performance both with and without implied volatility in the information set. A vectorized ARFIMA (vecARFIMA) model is introduced to control for possible endogeneity issues. This model is compared to a vecHAR specification, re-enforcing the results from the single equation framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Tangsgaard Varneskov, 2010. "The Role of Dynamic Specification in Forecasting Volatility in the Presence of Jumps and Noisy High-Frequency Data," CREATES Research Papers 2010-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-39
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    Keywords

    ARFIMA; HAR; Implied Volatility; Jumps; Market Microstructure Noise; VecARFIMA; Volatility Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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