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Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Dirk Ulbricht

Abstract

The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price bubbles in 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Along with testing bubbles for each city separately, we apply two new testing approaches: a panel data and principal components version of explosive root tests. We define bubble as an explosive growth of prices that is not supported by the rent increase. Therefore, to check for the existence of bubbles, we examine prices, rents, and price-to-rent ratios. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities, especially for the case of newly built housing. However, only in few urban housing markets prices decouple from their fundamental values. On the national level, we do not see evidence for speculative price movements. Overall, we find that the danger of a build-up of a speculative price bubble in the German housing market is rather moderate.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1417
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Louis Bago & Koffi Akakpo & Imad Rherrad & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2021. "Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Markus Hertrich, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, November.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Jonas Keil, 2018. "Fundamental Determinants of Real Estate Prices: A Panel Study of German Regions," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(1), pages 25-45, February.
    4. Kajuth, Florian, 2021. "Land leverage and the housing market: Evidence from Germany1," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Fehr, Hans & Hofmann, Maurice, 2020. "Tenure choice, portfolio structure and long-term care – Optimal risk management in retirement," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    6. Jan R. Kim & Gieyoung Lim, 2018. "A look into German housing markets: A bubble call?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 289-301, December.
    7. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Julien Licheron, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Rental Housing Regulations: The Case of Germany in 1950-2015," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1649, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2015. "Urban house prices: A tale of 48 cities," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-43.
    9. Kajuth, Florian, 2020. "The German housing market cycle: Answers to FAQs," Discussion Papers 20/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative bubble; explosive root; German cities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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