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Urban house prices: A tale of 48 cities

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Listed author(s):
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Ulbricht, Dirk

Abstract

In this paper, the authors construct a unique data set of Internet offer prices for flats in 48 large European cities across 24 countries. The data collected between January and May 2012 from 33 websites, are drawn from Internet advertisements of dwellings. Using the resulting sample of more than 1,000,000 announcements, the authors compute the quality-adjusted city-specific house prices. Based on this information, they investigate the determinants of the apartment prices. Four factors are found to be relevant for the dwelling price level using Bayesian Model Averaging: Population density, mortgage per capita, income inequality, and unemployment rate. The results are robust to applying two alternative estimation techniques: OLS and quantile regression. Based on the auhors' estimation results they are able to identify cities where the prices are overvalued. This is a useful indication of a build-up of house price bubbles.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-28
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File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/120918/1/836118812.pdf
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Article provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.

Volume (Year): 9 (2015)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 1-43

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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201528
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Keywords: internet advertisements; housing prices; large European cities; fundamentalprices;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
  • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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  1. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2011. "What Causes Asset Price Bubble in an Emerging Economy? Some Empirical Evidence in the Housing Sector of India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 215-237.
  2. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
  3. Nicodemo, Catia & Raya, Josep Maria, 2012. "Change in the distribution of house prices across Spanish cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 739-748.
  4. Luc Anselin & Nancy Lozano-Gracia, 2008. "Errors in variables and spatial effects in hedonic house price models of ambient air quality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-34, February.
  5. Ozanne, Larry & Thibodeau, Thomas, 1983. "Explaining metropolitan housing price differences," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 51-66, January.
  6. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
  7. Clapp John M. & Giaccotto Carmelo, 1994. "The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 161-183, September.
  8. Hort, Katinka, 1998. "The Determinants of Urban House Price Fluctuations in Sweden 1968-1994," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 93-120, June.
  9. Çağlayan Ebru & Arikan Eban, 2011. "Determinants of house prices in Istanbul: a quantile regression approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 305-317, February.
  10. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, September.
  11. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  12. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2009. "The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 193-220.
  13. Henger, Ralph & Voigtländer, Michael, 2014. "Transaktions- und Angebotsdaten von Wohnimmobilien. Eine Analyse für Hamburg," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW) / Cologne Institute for Economic Research, vol. 41(4), pages 85-100.
  14. Bernhard Faller & Christoph Helbach, & Andreas Vater & Reiner Braun, 2009. "Möglichkeiten zur Bildung eines Regionalindex Wohnkosten unter Verwendung von Angebotsdaten," Research Notes of the German Council for Social and Economic Data 34, German Council for Social and Economic Data (RatSWD).
  15. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  16. Vahram Stepanyan & Tigran Poghosyan & Aidyn Bibolov, 2010. "House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 10/104, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Eloisa T. Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 163-204, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  2. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Irina Krylova & Darya Kryutchenko, 2017. "Finding the Consumer Center of St. Petersburg?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 165/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  3. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Julien Licheron, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Rental Housing Regulations: The Case of Germany in 1950-2015," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1649, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis," SERC Discussion Papers 0210, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  5. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Irina Krylova & Darya Kryutchenko, 2017. "Where Is the Consumer Center of St. Petersburg?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1666, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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