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The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy

Author

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  • Karol Jan Borowiecki

    () (Swiss Banking Institute)

Abstract

This paper studies the Swiss housing price determinants. The Swiss housing economy is reproduced by employing a macro-series from the last seventeen years and constructing a vector-autoregressive model. Conditional on a comparatively broad set of fundamental determinants considered, i.e. wealth, banking, demographic and real estate specific variables, the following findings are made: 1) real house price growth and construction activity dynamics are most sensitive to changes in population and construction prices, whereas real GDP, in contrary to common empirical findings in other countries, turns out to have only a minor impact in the short-term, 2) exogenous house price shocks have no long-term impacts on housing supply and vice versa, and 3) despite the recent substantial price increases, worries of overvaluation are unfounded. Furthermore, based on a self-constructed quality index, evidence is provided for a positive impact of quality improvements in supplied dwellings on house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2009. "The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 193-220.
  • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:12:n:03:2009:p:193-220
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kenny, Geoff, 2003. "Asymmetric adjustment costs and the dynamics of housing supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1097-1111, December.
    5. Oikarinen, Elias, 2005. "Is Housing Overvalued in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area?," Discussion Papers 992, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    6. David Rae & Paul van den Noord, 2006. "Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 492, OECD Publishing.
    7. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2015. "Urban house prices: A tale of 48 cities," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 9, pages 1-43.
    2. Elizabeth Steiner, 2010. "Estimating a Stock-Flow Model for the Swiss Housing Market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(III), pages 601-627, September.
    3. Adrienne Csizmady & József Hegedüs & Christophe André & Elisabeth Beckmann, & Antje Hildebrandt & Krisztina Jäger-Gyovai & Agnieszka Nierodka & Martin Schneider & Karin Wagner & Guenter Karl & Robert , 2016. "Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition," NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department, number 2 edited by Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, Octubre-D.
    4. Martin Schneider & Karin Wagner, 2015. "Housing Markets in Austria, Germany and Switzerland," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 42-58.
    5. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2012. "Dynamics of a Protected Housing Market: The Case of Switzerland," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(14), pages 3195-3210, November.
    6. Dirk Drechsel & Anne Kathrin Funk, 2017. "Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 153(I), pages 37-72, March.
    7. Dirk Drechsel, 2015. "Housing Cycles in Switzerland - A Time-Varying Approach," KOF Working papers 15-381, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2012. "Internet Offer Prices for Flats and Their Determinants: A Cross Section of Large European Cities," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1212, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Demand; Housing Supply and Markets;

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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