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Housing Cycles in Switzerland - A Time-Varying Approach

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  • Dirk Drechsel

Abstract

In light of the strong increase of house prices in Switzerland, we analyze the effects of mortgage rate shocks, changes in the interplay between housing demand and supply and GDP growth on house prices for the time period 1981- 2014. We employ Bayesian time-varying coefficients vector autoregressions to allow different monetary and immigration regimes over time. A number of structural changes, such as regulatory changes in the aftermath of the 1990s real estate crisis, the introduction of free-labor movements in the 2000s or the zero lower bound interest rate regime in the 2010s might have affected the responses of house prices to influencing factors. We investigate potential parameter changes and their importance in light of the current housing price boom. We find that 40% of house price variations can be explained by changes in demand and supply for housing. Furthermore, the response of house prices to mortgage rate shocks weakened after the 1990s real estate crisis and increased in size again during the recent house price boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Drechsel, 2015. "Housing Cycles in Switzerland - A Time-Varying Approach," KOF Working papers 15-381, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:15-381
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-010431888
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    1. Bourassa, Steven & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato, 2010. "Housing finance, prices, and tenure in Switzerland," MPRA Paper 45990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kathrin Degen & Andreas Fischer, 2017. "Immigration and Swiss House Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 153(I), pages 15-36, March.
    3. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
    4. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    5. Elizabeth Steiner, 2010. "Estimating a Stock-Flow Model for the Swiss Housing Market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(III), pages 601-627, September.
    6. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2009. "The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 193-220.
    7. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    8. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    9. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 37, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese, 2013. "Monetary policy and real estate prices: a disaggregated analysis for Switzerland," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 469-490, December.
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