IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sjecst/v153y2017i1d10.1007_bf03399434.html

Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Dirk Drechsel

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Anne Kathrin Funk

    (ETH Zurich
    Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)

Abstract

Summary In light of the strong increase of house prices in Switzerland in the 2000s and early 2010s, we analyze the effects of mortgage rate shocks, changes in housing demand & supply and business cycle conditions on house prices for the time period 1982–2013. We study intertemporal effects by employing Bayesian timevarying coefficients vector autoregressions (TVC-BVAR), regional effects by using regional BVARs and heterogeneity in housing markets by looking at housing segments. 50 % of house price variations can be explained by housing demand & supply. The response of house prices to mortgage rate shocks weakened after the 1990s real estate crisis and remained constant thereafter. However, owneroccupied apartment prices became again more sensitive to mortgage rate shocks during the recent house price boom. Regional effects are especially prevalent for regions Zurich and Geneva.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Drechsel & Anne Kathrin Funk, 2017. "Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(1), pages 37-72, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:153:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_bf03399434
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03399434
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF03399434
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF03399434?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bourassa, Steven & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato, 2010. "Housing finance, prices, and tenure in Switzerland," MPRA Paper 45990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Elizabeth Steiner, 2010. "Estimating a Stock-Flow Model for the Swiss Housing Market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(3), pages 601-627, September.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 37, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Kathrin Degen & Andreas M. Fischer, 2017. "Immigration and Swiss House Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(1), pages 15-36, January.
    5. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
    6. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    7. Christoph Basten & Cathérine Koch, 2014. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply," ECON - Working Papers 140, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    8. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions : a panel-VAR study," Working Paper Research 149, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    10. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
    11. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2009. "The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 12(3), pages 193-220.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0037, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Basten, Christoph & Koch, Catherine, 2015. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-22.
    14. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    15. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese, 2013. "Monetary policy and real estate prices: a disaggregated analysis for Switzerland," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 469-490, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nitschka, Thomas & Satkurunathan, Shajivan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242358, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Joël Vonlanthen, 2023. "Interest rates and real estate prices: a panel study," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-25, December.
    3. Büchler, Simon & Götze, Vera & Hauck, Lukas & Stalder, Nicola, 2025. "The amplifying effect of spatial planning restrictions on house prices and rents," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Liu, Lianyi & Wu, Lifeng, 2020. "Predicting housing prices in China based on modified Holt's exponential smoothing incorporating whale optimization algorithm," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Andrea Baranzini & Stefano Carattini & Linda Tesauro, 2021. "Designing Effective and Acceptable Road Pricing Schemes: Evidence from the Geneva Congestion Charge," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(3), pages 417-482, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dirk Drechsel, 2015. "Housing Cycles in Switzerland - A Time-Varying Approach," KOF Working papers 15-381, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Fabienne Helfer & Volker Grossmann & Aderonke Osikominu, 2023. "Correction: How does immigration affect housing costs in Switzerland?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-1, December.
    3. Tafirenyika Sunde & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2017. "Determinants of house prices and new construction activity: An empirical investigation of the Namibian housing market," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(3), pages 389-407, July-Sept.
    4. Lenarčič, Črt & Zorko, Robert & Herman, Uroš & Savšek, Simon, 2016. "A Primer on Slovene House Prices Forecast," MPRA Paper 103552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Romuald Morhs, 2010. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Luxembourg: Results from a VAR Analysis," BCL working papers 49, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Hanck, Christoph & Prüser, Jan, 2016. "House prices and interest rates: Bayesian evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 620, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Singh, Bhupal & Nadkarni, Avadhoot R., 2020. "Role of credit and monetary policy in determining asset prices: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Nils Jannsen & Galina Potjagailo & Maik H. Wolters, 2019. "Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 81-126, October.
    9. Demary, Markus, 2009. "The Link between Output, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Housing Price Dynamics," MPRA Paper 15978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2021. "Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 38(02), pages 279-317, September.
    11. Saira Rehman & Nuno Moutinho & Jorge Alves, 2020. "The Relationship Between Portuguese Economy Indicators And Housing Prices," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, CinTurs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 8(4), pages 270-286.
    12. Frondel, Manuel & Schmidt, Torsten & Vance, Colin & Zimmermann, Tobias & Belke, Ansgar, 2008. "Einfluss von Preisschocks auf die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland: Forschungsvorhaben des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Projekt-Nr. I D 4-020815-16/07. Endbericht - Oktober 2008," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70890.
    13. Büchler, Simon & Götze, Vera & Hauck, Lukas & Stalder, Nicola, 2025. "The amplifying effect of spatial planning restrictions on house prices and rents," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    15. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
    16. Rosa Drift & Jan Haan & Peter Boelhouwer, 2024. "Forecasting House Prices through Credit Conditions: A Bayesian Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(6), pages 3381-3405, December.
    17. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    18. Josef Bajzik & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Klara Moravcova & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2023. "Monetary Policy Has a Long-Lasting Impact on Credit: Evidence from 91 VAR Studies," Working Papers 2023/19, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    19. Michal Rubaszek & David Stenvall & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2025. "Rental market structure and housing dynamics: An interacted panel VAR investigation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 781-802, January.
    20. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sjecst:v:153:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_bf03399434. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.